Dave Collum: Financial Crisis, Diddy, Energy Weapons, QAnon, and the Deep State’s Digital Evolution

 

 
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Very few college professors do what college professors are supposed
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to do, which is kind of break through outside campus into the the conversation among smart people about what the world
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is about. And uh in other words, they don't they don't kind of influence the broader culture directly. Um and you do
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and you're an organic chemistry professor. I how are you allowed to do this at
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Cornell? Are you allowed to kind of opine on economics, social policy,
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foreign policy? Like what do what are your administrators
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saying when you do this? Um I don't know if it's generally true, but um Cornell's
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not giving me any gooff. The the only problem I had with Cornell and we talked, you know, we had breakfast and
0:51
we talked a little bit about I think my colleagues wish I would shut up, but but they don't tell me to shut up. Although,
0:57
you know, they've told me to stay on I have kind of an intellectual Tourett syndrome where stay in your lane.
1:02
Well, I'll be in the middle of class like in March of Ou uh of '07 in the
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middle of class. No warning. I blurred out the banking systems about to collapse. I had written about it in ' 02,
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but I turned I said, "I think it's about to collapse." This is an organic chemistry class. An organic chemistry class. I And they
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looked at me and I just said, "Look, I think the entire banking system's going down the tubes now." And it took another year, year and a half to go.
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Did they say that's not a related discipline? What are you talking about? No, no, no. No one gave me gut for that. What was entertaining about that
1:32
particular Tourette's like outburst is that I had the same kids in an honors
1:39
thesis course two years later in the first lecture, one lecture a week, the first lecture, I said, "Didn't I warn
1:45
you?" This is February of09 said, "Didn't I warn you that that the banking system was going to collapse?" I said,
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they said, "Yeah, you did." And I said, "Did your ecom professors tell you that?" They said, "No." And I said, "What are those [ __ ] paid for?
2:04
[Applause] [Music]
2:13
[Applause] [Music] In this thesis course, um, I used a lot
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of guest lectures. So my first guest lecture was the CEO of Morgan Stanley Bank
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and he had cut his teeth on mortgage back securities and he spent two hours
2:33
talking about the catastrophe that we were in the middle of in February of09
2:38
and uh and so so yeah I do occasionally go off the rails but but no one gives me
2:44
grief. I got cancelled in 2020. the closest you and I I've been following you for years, but the closest you and I
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actually came to actually meeting, but we didn't um was in 2020. I got
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cancelled during the height of cancel season, right? Remember how it was happening all the time and and the
3:02
probability of me ending up being interviewed by you was pretty high because it was being ri I got cancelled.
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I was written up in the federalist and places like that. And so what were you canceled for? Oh, it was a real crime against
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humanity. I supported the police. Oh, okay. It was one of those. Remember the guy got
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knocked over in Buffalo? Yes. Um, a friend of mine who I was doing a podcast with that Saturday posted that
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late one night and said uh said, "I think this is just appalling when the old guy got knocked over by the riot
3:31
police." And I watched the video a couple times. I said, "Well, Chris," his name was Chris Irons. I said, "Um,
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we can talk about it on Saturday, but but but I have no idea what he was doing there." So, this is in a tweet and I
3:45
said um I said he was poking riot police with something that looked kind of like
3:50
a taser or something. Turns out in retrospect it was a skimmer. And uh and and so I said it looks like
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kind of a self-inflicted problem to me, right? I didn't say he deserved it or anything like that, but it it is
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self-inflicted. If you poke a riot policeman and he knocks you over, right? That that that's pretty much, you know,
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it's a Darwin award. Bears and riot riot policemen shouldn't be poked. Turns out um what I learned
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that night was that cancel culture is not organic. It was it was incredibly
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astroturfed. The speed with which it happened was staggering. Um it was
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automated. Within within 20 or 30 minutes, um email boxes all across the
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administration were filling with complaints. Um it it went everywhere. I had to lock down my Twitter feed fast
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and and things like that. Um and and then Cornell was on sort of a war footing trying to figure out what to do.
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Now they're trying to figure out what to do just because they wanted the fire to be put out, right? So they weren't
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against me in that sense. Um it was during the lockdown. So um I didn't I
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didn't actually uh I there was the advantage of everyone was locked down,
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but I wasn't sure Antifa wouldn't show up. And we know that's not organic either, right? And so, uh, and so, uh,
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and so I slept with some loaded guns, and I was emotionally ready to blow someone's brains out.
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How many tenure professors in Ivy League schools have guns at home? I don't know. I would No. Well, there's
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probably more. We have natural resources department, stuff like that, and those guys probably use the resources
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available. Um, but the the one mistake Cornell made, they made two mistakes.
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First of all, um, it turns out the guy was a grifter. the whole thing was faked. And there's there's video footage
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of him telling people he's going to go get knocked down and people yelling at him for doing that. Um it turns out the
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blood that came out of his ear. I've talked to physicians. They said it would never come out like that. Um there's
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pictures of him on the gurnie talking on his cell phone behind the ambulance. The the press couldn't find him in any of
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the hospitals. He made a lot of money on GoFundMe. So he he grifted his while he
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was supposedly in a coma. his Twitter feed which had all sorts of [ __ ] the police kind of comments um was being
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scrubbed very quickly and and so uh so the turn of the whole thing in retrospect was a grift and so I
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was dead right um Cornell was on a war footing trying to figure out how to just stop this there's graffiti all over the
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campus and stuff and so they made two mistakes one is um at no point did someone from Cornell reach out and say
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how are you doing right because a guy in North Carolina got cancelceled and he killed himself
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right I wasn't going to kill myself. It was unpleasant. I I would admit that. How long had you been at Cornell at that
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point? Oh, that would have been 40 years. 40 years. So, plus four years as undergrad, so you
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know. So, you spent 44 years at Cornell at that point. So, not a newcomer. No. And and by the way, the guy who was
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the provost at the time was a friend of mine. He he was um he I knew him from
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the day he got to Cornell. He's now the president and it's useful. So, when I when I when I told I I I knew I was
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coming here and I asked a trustee, um, I'm I'm going to be talking to Tucker. Is there anything any you'd like me to
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somehow get out there? Not that I'm going to be there talking, man. U, but I would be stupid to to miss it. And I
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sent a quick email to the president and said, "Is there anything?" And he gave me a couple bullets, but they were obvious. They were the obvious things.
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And um the second mistake they made is eventually they put together some and
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and the Daily Sun was doing what I called the Daily Column where where they'd publish an article
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about what an [ __ ] I was, right? And they'd write an article about the football team and get the NSA. By the way, did we mention Colum's an [ __ ]
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right? That sort of thing. So, um, so they they finally wrote a letter
7:48
denouncing me and it was signed, interestingly, by the president, who I
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didn't really like that much, that president, uh, the provos, who's a friend of mine, which was ironic, the
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chief of police, which was super ironic, and a couple other administrators. Who was missing was one of our deans, the
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dean of arts and sciences, who didn't sign it. He would have been an obvious signer. and he once said to me, "What
8:12
good is tenure if you don't have free speech?" Now, they weren't trying to hurt me. They were just trying to put
8:18
out a fire and it put it out. So, to in that sense, they did the right thing. Did they call and tell you they were
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going to denounce you before they No. And and by the way, I know a number of trustees at this point and and they
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all said they should have just shut up. So, that was a mistake. Um, more recently, a guy named Rickman, I think
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it was, you know, made that statement about it being exhilarated that Israel got attacked, right? And he shouldn't
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have said that, right? That was stupid. But, um, but what people don't understand is that universities are this
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funny combination of free speech and academic freedom. We're supposed to foster speech, and that means dumb
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speech. That means sometimes hostile speech, right? You know that drill. And and then the president denounced
9:00
him. the same president, the one I didn't really like, the one who denounced me, and she said, "This is only the second time I've denounced
9:06
something a faculty member said." And I go, "Yeah, I was the first." Hate to brag, but we're pretty confident this
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wallet will thank you. What about the pro the then provos, now the president, who was your friend who denounced you?
10:42
Did that affect your friendship? No, not a bit. They were just trying to put out a fire, and I was ready for the fire to be put out. What helped is
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several trustees wandered in the president's office and said, "Don't even think about doing something stupid
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here." So I I had one day I put out a tweet talk about how lovely Cornell is.
11:00
I Cornell is a phenomenal institution. So So my loyalty to Cornell is painting
11:05
my vision, but Cornell is not like the other Ivy's. It's not Harvard. It's not Princeton. It is It's in the middle of
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this idyllic setting with we have 200 gorges. The people at Cornell are self-
11:17
selected. They're the ones who want to live here, right? If there was a college in in in your neighborhood, it would be
11:23
filled with people who love the outdoors. It would be filled with people who like this way of life, right? Cornell has that.
11:30
And so, um, and and by the way, it's ranked number one in a critical category. Um, it has more top 10 ranked
11:37
departments than any school in the country. And and and that's because we have so
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many different things going on here. So it's it's a very special place. So the the letter denouncing you was
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really just kabuki. I mean it was it was kabuki. Yeah. It was it was tried to just put out the fire and it did and
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and it I I paid a price. Um I lost a consulting gig at Fizer because of it
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because I was now a Nazi you know and and wait Fiser didn't stand by you.
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I had consult I had consult there for 20 years and they were going to zoom consulting and now Fiser doesn't need a
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controversial consultant either. So they they just cleared the deck as well. So I don't hold it against I hold again what
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I hold against Fiser is the vaccine. I don't hold the guys I consult with at Fiser were great guys and Fizer they
12:25
were trying to get their job done right and stuff like that. So why why do you as an organic chemist why
12:30
do you hold the vaccine against them? Uh because I think it killed a lot of people and they knew it. I read the f I
12:38
I so I started writing about COVID right away if you can imagine right a scientist. I started networking. I started trying to figure it out. I'm in
12:44
a group called Doctors for Co Ethics for four years where we had every major antivaxer on the planet go through this.
12:51
Wait, so you're a consultant to Fizer? You're a pretty famous one of the most
12:57
famous organic chemists in the country. So if you say the Fiser COVID vacc, it
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can't be dismissed as crank talk. Well, it could be because I'm not a I'm not a vaccine expert. I'm an organic
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chemist. So I I have certain technical skills that probably help me burrow and
13:15
it's the genetics major as an undergrad that helps me. I don't use the bioam or the genetics but it allows me to sort of
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read stuff and uh but you think it killed a lot of people well the fizer papers which is which
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which which are papers written about the clinical trials and the ve's database show huge number of of problems right
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and and so our our the doctor for co ethics we had every famous antivaxer one
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of the first ones I I went to it was Bobby Kennedy and we had you you name it you name an antivaxer you name the
13:47
Malones, the Ryan Kohl's, the Brian Artistes, the the you you can go on and
13:53
on and on. They all went through this this group and and we talked about
13:58
things three or four years became the Is anyone keeping track of how many Americans were killed by it?
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Well, it's very hard because first of all, every flu death got absorbed into the CO stats. So flu disappeared, which
14:12
can't be true. And if it did because we're locked down, then how' we all get CO, right? So um there's now studies
14:21
coming out from other countries because we have too many too many people who who
14:26
will look very bad when this data comes out. But the Japanese, for example, come out and said some very strong things
14:32
about what didn't happen. The head of the Japanese medical system, I think, came out and said that you could
14:38
correlate the the number of deaths with the number of shots, right? and and so
14:43
there it's now that the gag order has been released um scientific studies are making it into the literature and
14:49
there's already thousands got to be one of the great man-made disasters of our lifetimes
14:54
the lockdown too I think you mentioned or someone did in one of your podcasts
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um about the travesty maybe it was Walter about the travesty of locking down
15:08
you show me you you tell me how old a kid is and I and tell you what subjects
15:13
he does not or she does not know. So if you were studying trigonometry
15:19
the year that everything was locked down, you don't know trigonometry at all. We pretended to teach them, they
15:24
pretended to learn, nothing happened. And do you see that now? Well, you could see it going through the
15:30
system. So for example, our first year grads who were taking organic chemistry when during lockdown when they showed
15:35
up, they were very weak in organic chemistry. Yeah, you could see it. So, think of the poor kid who's five years
15:41
old trying to learn how to read and write and everything's through a mask,
15:47
right? That that that and and there's imprinting periods, right? There's periods where you learn to read and
15:52
write or or you're kind of in trouble. And so, we we it was disastrous. It was absurd. And the whole thing was done by
15:58
Fouchy. But how could and our Zoom group, by the way, had had Scott Atlas. And so I asked Scott, I
16:04
said, "Scott, was it malicious? Fouchy and Burks did what they do was malicious." And I think
16:11
it was. I mean, I think there's evil forces behind those two. But he took a different tact. He said, "You cannot
16:19
fathom how stupid those two are." That was his answer. He said Fouchi never
16:24
gave a scientific argument. Never. And he said, "One day, this is a st." He said, "One day." This is all recorded.
16:30
So I'm not, you know, talking behind his back. This is there is a recording on the internet with this. Um
16:37
he says one day walks in with a scientific paper that Atlas had read. And so thinking whoa Fouch is actually
16:43
going to say something scientific. Fouchi went to say and seephilom myitis.
16:50
Now if you work at the 7-Eleven, you might stumble on that one, but if you're
16:56
head of the entire health organization, you shouldn't. And he said he botched it so bad it was unintelligible. And Atlas
17:02
said, "Come again? What did you just say?" And Fouchi wouldn't repeat it. He said Burks was yanking [ __ ] off the
17:07
internet, making pie charts having not a clue what it meant. Not a clue.
17:13
That's terrifying. Chris though, he didn't speak up. I
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don't think Fouchy Atlas I think he sat there.
17:24
Can I ask you to back up just a moment though? So you're describing now incompetence, but you alluded earlier to malice. What do you think the dark
17:30
forces behind Burks and Fouchi were? Well, I think they first of all, they
17:36
love the fact we're talking about whether it came out of a lab in Wuhan because that way we're debating whether to blame the Chinese or not, right? When
17:44
in fact, I think it came out of a lab probably in North Carolina. um uh a number of guys have tracked both the the
17:51
this the the disease and and the vaccine back years before it showed up on our
17:58
dinner plate. Um I I think lowle malice would be
18:04
wait you think it came out of a lab in North Carolina. Yeah. Ralph Bareric.
18:10
Yeah. He the you can follow guy name David Martin has followed um the patent
18:15
trail and and an artificial organism can be patented not a natural one.
18:21
Yes. And this you can follow the patent trail on co and and and you can follow vaccine
18:27
patent trail and get watch it get moved around move from point A to point B. If it was created in North Carolina how
18:34
did it get to Wuhan and what was that? We were funding we were funding research
18:39
in Wuhan because we were not allowed to do game of gain of sorry I keep capping the table. Oh, it's all right. This is a topic that
18:46
deserves some table. I I I've done podcasts where I have headphones and I have four B three
18:52
Boston terriers soon four. Um and they snore. I can't hear them because my headphones are noise dampening. And then
18:59
I listen to the podcast. I hear this humongous amount of snoring behind me. So I I'm aware of background noise.
19:04
You didn't bring the terriers this morning. I didn't bring the terriers. No. So, but you I just want to flesh this
19:10
out a bit. You think it was created or begun in North Carolina then brought to
19:16
Wuhan for to be elaborated to be studied to be so I think we took everything offshore
19:23
because it got uh gain of function got banned in the US I but I don't think we
19:28
banned it. There were something like 36 bio bioweapons labs in Ukraine. Yeah. Of US origin. Yes.
19:36
So, why is Ukraine perfect? Ukraine's perfect. To run a bioweapons lab, you need first world um infrastructure.
19:43
Yeah. And third world people to test [ __ ] on. Ukraine's pretty much got that right.
19:51
Cuz Fouchy, for example, in the United States when he had to do clinical trials when one of his lower rank, they'd go to
19:59
they'd go to foster care. They would do clinical trials on foster
20:04
children. What? Yeah. You got to read Kennedy's book. Yeah. He did. He did an
20:10
estimated he they use an estimated 13 14,000 foster kids to do clinical
20:15
trials. They said the kids would figure out they're getting sick and they wouldn't want to take the meds.
20:21
That's so that's like nuts. So I think 5G's been doing damage to people and killing people for many many
20:27
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Safe. to do clinical trials on foster kids. I thought after the second world war when both the Japanese and the
21:46
Germans were doing things like that Nuremberg code well exactly it was codified there but
21:52
in for scientists but for the rest of the world and certainly American culture we were taught that
21:59
testing potentially dangerous drugs on people without their full consent or on the weakest among us or you know
22:05
euthanizing mental patients whatever all that was bad right I thought that was one of the big lessons of the second world war
22:12
well as we both know that there are no rules. Well, that's Boy, is that the truth?
22:18
There are no rules, right? There are none. There are rules for us, you and
22:23
me, but um there are subjects for which people could be thrown in prison. Um you
22:32
know, great example would be uh Diddy. So, what happened with Diddy? I think
22:38
what happened with Diddy is Diddy had a bunch of very incriminating tapes. I think you know Epstein light
22:44
and and I think they arrested him to round it all up all the data. I think
22:50
they did it to get all the data away from Diddy because he was being sued in civil court
22:56
and the guilty party said we got to get it out of there before the civil court gets it. And so they arrest Diddy. What
23:04
did they just convict him of? Nothing. They could have put him away for 20 years based on what he did to Justin
23:09
Bieber. Right. They didn't even get him on any of that. So, it's a classic. It's a
23:15
classic case. I know I sound like a nutcase, but you've had a lot of nutcases on your shows.
23:21
I had my brother who's trying to dial me back his day. They're going to think you're a nutcase if you talk about all the things
23:27
you think about. And I go, "Well, I think that ship has sailed." You know, as I said to uh when Well, I thought that was the whole point
23:32
of academic research was that, you know, the predicate for it, the basis of it
23:37
is free thinking. Well, but according to Douglas Murray, I'm not supposed to talk about it unless I'm an expert.
23:44
Well, you are a demonstrable expert uh in your area. I mean, which is not diddy.
23:50
It's not diddy. You're not a tenure professor of diddy studies at Cornell. Uh we could have it. You know, we have
23:57
subjects and and so you think the point of arresting Diddy was to shut down inquiry into what
24:05
Diddy was doing? Get the data, right? Well, that's clearly the point of the first Jeffrey Epstein arrest.
24:11
Hunter Biden's laptop. Tell me your view of Hunter Biden's laptop. Well, Sydney,
24:17
what's her name? Lawyer. Come on. Sydney Powell. Yep. Elite lawyer, now down a few notches cuz
24:24
you worked for Trump and that always gets you in trouble. Yes. said that if if uh if Hunter Biden's
24:30
laptop were ever released. No, if Anthony Weiner's laptop were ever released, the government would fall.
24:38
Weer's laptop had kill switches in it. I mean, it it was filled with crap that
24:44
wasn't supposed to be there. We never get to see it. Supposedly, nine cops
24:50
watched the videos on on on on Weiner's laptop. They had to keep leaving the room
24:55
because they couldn't stand what they were seeing. And all nine are now dead.
25:01
And there's names and faces and deadness, right? They're they're real people. Now, you can say, "Well, maybe
25:06
they died for other reasons." I go, "But it's still nine cops." And, you know, it's like the five cops
25:13
who died after January 6, right? Four of them were suicides.
25:18
Out of, according to AI, there were about 80 cops really in the thick of things.
25:24
Four of them died from suicide. I don't need any more information to wonder what the hell is going on there.
25:30
That's one of those standalone observations where I go, "That's not right. The math of that doesn't work for
25:36
me." I've got pictures of Ukrainian See, I'm going off topic. I've got pictures of
25:42
you known Ukrainian operatives with with You're not going to believe this. With the QAnon Shaman guy, the guy
25:49
with the horns in January 6 at January 6. What is that all about? I've got
25:54
videos of It seems totally normal. Yeah. Yeah. Totally. I've got videos with the National Guard 100 yards away not
26:00
doing anything. I've gotten videos of John Sullivan, right? The guy who was
26:05
supposedly Antifa, but Antifa said, "No, he's a fed. Don't talk to him." Who then
26:11
filmed Ashley Babbot getting shot. This guy's getting around. What What's your image of an Antifa person? Lost soul,
26:18
tattoos everywhere, right? No meaning in life, right? Yeah. And no no path forward really. I
26:25
mean these are these are societies if if they're real. That is if they're if they're real. But I mean if you look
26:30
at the mug shots of Antifa arrest or the people who came to my house Antifa there I mean these are you know obviously I
26:37
disagree. They threaten my family. I don't like them and all that. But you also feel like these are like one step
26:42
above homeless. Like these are right losers. Yeah. Right. And uh and um
26:49
so if he's Antifa, it's really odd that he was a nationally ranked cyclist.
26:58
What I know about nationally ranked anything is their lives have purpose. Now there's a mug shot. Did you follow
27:04
this Patriot Front story? I'm really This This is now the helmet's on, the leash to the jungle gym is on. on the
27:10
patriot front guys, those guys who'd stomp around looking like neo-Nazis who also were buff and had no pot bellies
27:16
and covered their faces and get arrested and their handcuffed with their backpacks still on and their their their
27:22
megaphone still over their shoulders and and and then I saw mug shots of them.
27:29
Not a single tattoo. Yeah. No tattoos. These are neo-Nazis. Not a
27:35
single tattoo. They didn't have like waffs lightning bolts on their cheeks,
27:41
you know? Right. So, so, so we are in this big
27:47
Walter Kernish. We're in this made for the internet plot. Walter is great in his description
27:55
of the I've been tracking the man story. It's not the right story. There's
28:00
something wrong. And I Walter laid it out. Now, what Walter
28:05
didn't say is who's behind him? That's obviously the question. I mean, you can look at all of these different
28:12
stories, particularly the acts of violence, which are because they are acts of violence are, you know, examined much more closely than any other kind of
28:19
act. Um, and it like doesn't it doesn't make any sense. I mean, the the shooting
28:24
of Trump a year ago in Butler, Pennsylvania is just Oh, I wrote about that everything. Do you know what I just read the other day?
28:31
the guy who shot Thomas Krooks, right? There were bullets flying all over that
28:37
place, but it was a catastrophically poorly set up defense of Trump. But the
28:44
guy who shot Thomas Krooks was the same guy who organized the protection of
28:50
Trump. And they say, "Oh, you know, he didn't get convicted of anything and other guys, didn't I?" go. Well, so the guy
28:56
who was in charge of making sure that after the assassination was done, he popped the assassin
29:02
is somehow not getting prosecuted. Why am I not shocked? So, you're saying he was the Jack Ruby
29:08
figure here? He was the Jack Ruby figure. Yes. So, so what was odd about that story? Well,
29:15
first of all, all the news agencies were there. This was a totally irrelevant
29:21
rally in the an irrelevant place. Butler, Pennsylvania. And there's a stranger story there. And
29:28
again, I I I just pick up these shards and sometimes they fit together into a story and sometimes it's just put it in
29:34
your head, keep it there until you get more detail. Um, there's a guy sitting
29:40
behind Trump named Joseph Fusa. Fusa is his last
29:46
name. I had seen him before many times. He was by the QAnon guys, which are a
29:53
bunch of whack jobs, um, said to be, you're not going to believe this, said to be John F. Kennedy
30:00
Jr. waiting to come back and save the world. And I'm going, "Oh, you guys have lost your minds finally. You've really
30:07
gone." It doesn't matter that that's a total croc. Fusa is this guy and they say, "No, his
30:14
name is Fusa and whatever, you know, blah blah blah blah blah." But but he's one who supposedly JFK Jr. in disguise.
30:21
Fusa was there sitting right behind Trump. I go, of all the rallies, there
30:27
he is. Who is he? I don't know. And what's really Trump gets shot, everyone's reacting, and
30:33
Fusa's not. And then there's two pieces of footage. Now, when you say you've seen him before,
30:39
you've seen him in photographs before. Oh, he had been talked about. I I've dug down some deep rabbit holes and find
30:44
this guy. So, one of the things you discover, you know this as well as anyone. You you think you're going down
30:50
a rabbit hole and you discover go back like tappy. You get down the rabbit hole and you go
30:55
this thing that this there's a there's an entire ecosystem down here that
31:00
people don't know exists. Once once you it's like it's like once you you you ask
31:05
how did Kennedy get killed and you go oh boy you know that that's troubling right and then building seven which you talked
31:11
with Ron Johnson who by the way was in our doc zoom group. Right. When I'm talking, we had everyone. We had everyone. Um,
31:18
once you get on one or two of these, then you go, I I I can't trust anything.
31:24
And I'm I work in a field where you're supposed to be able to get the facts and say, now here's an odd story.
31:31
A friend of mine's binding all my annual reviews that I write. I write one blog a year. I've been thinking about why
31:38
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31:46
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It's built on core values. Integrity, results, no BS. Beam. We strongly
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recommend it. So, I stopped paying 100% attention to
33:18
chemistry and started on the side looking at markets when I became a boomer with some wealth and I started pay and I became I was a tech bull.
33:26
And then by 98 I realized the markets were in trouble. I'd read enough books, read enough blogs, read enough articles.
33:33
Um, and and so and then that naturally led me to politics
33:40
because if you don't understand politics, you don't understand economics. And uh and around 07, I wrote a I used
33:49
to on this chatboard I was at, I'd write a a summary at the end of the year. And
33:54
part of it was to to to make sure that my fairly extreme views weren't costing me serious pain and suffering
34:02
and and and instead of getting 200 clicks because this group is about 200
34:08
of us talking, um it went to like 4,000. I go, "What happened?" And I said, "Oh,
34:13
I put it on my blog." Someone told me that. So, so in '09, I I decided to do it seriously. I 30 years of investing.
34:20
So, I wrote a this this thing. I said, "30 years of investing from from the
34:25
cheap seats was the title." And it went wild actually. And part of it was
34:31
because um because I'd been highly successful as a rank
34:37
amateur through the 90s as a tech bull. I made 700% on WorldCom and then got
34:43
out, right? I made 700% on Dell, Warner, Lambert. I I thought I was a genius.
34:51
And and so I had years where I made over 100% without leverage. And and uh and
34:57
and then I got out and I got out due to Y2K, which turns out to be a grift.
35:04
Yeah. It took me decades to figure that out. I thought I just blew it, but no, it was
35:09
Silicon Valley selling software and hardware and I can make that whatever you want, but it's not worth it. Um,
35:15
and then and then so so I started paying attention to politics and then I just
35:22
went deeper and deeper down rabbit holes. I know I'm reading about Putin into 2012 trying to understand what's
35:28
going on there and stuff like that. So, um, so I I just kind of naturally go
35:33
down rabbit holes. Now, what you can't market a blog worse than writing one a year, right? That's about as bad as you
35:39
get and I don't charge for it. So, there's that. And and and then I realized though, um the reason it works
35:46
for me is if I wrote a blog once a week, most of them would be garbage because
35:53
imagine how many blogs I would have written about how Trump and Elon are best friends. Right.
35:59
Right. And now it seems irrelevant. I'd be writing about how Trump and Elon are enemies and then a month from now it'll
36:05
be irrelevant because they'll be best friends again, right? And so you could I could not write a weekly blog. And so
36:11
what I do is is I by writing once a year gives me a long time to think about. So
36:16
I get the idea and then I sort of watch go oh look at that. That's a puzzle piece right there. So it essentially is
36:23
book length 250 300 pages every fall
36:30
and and you can't and you don't charge for it and I don't and I you also can't write
36:35
it in March that's not a year in review so I usually end up with about 700 pages
36:41
of links and notes and if if I see something we talked before about about using tripe metaphors you know and how
36:47
we both hate it and but once in a while I'll see a way to insult the person, I'll go, "Oh, I'm saving that." Right
36:54
now, the other reason it's really great, I think, where do people find it? Uh, it's published at Peak Prosperity
37:00
and and it's my link, it's my pin tweet, so it stays up there all year and then until I publish the next one. Um, and
37:08
and it gives me the chance to collect the information to ponder what's going on that year and then and some things
37:15
become irrelevant, so I don't write about them. Some things are not some things become trit, right? But I think
37:21
my analysis of the um 2016 election, for example, was really good. The prophetic
37:27
line, I was watching BET.
37:33
Please don't get me to explain why I'm watching BET and Black Entertainment Today or something, whatever.
37:39
And some burly black guy's talking about Trump and he says, "Forget the messenger. Listen to the message. Listen
37:45
to the message." I'm going, "Holy moly." Right? Turns out he was the head of the end of the uh uh uh new Black Panther
37:53
Party. I go, Trump just got endorsed by the Black Panthers.
37:59
So I And then I saw Jimmy Brown, the running back, say he will be a president of the people
38:05
and and all of a sudden and so I wrote, "It might just be a flicker,
38:10
but I think the black community is moving to the right." And boy was that ahead of its time.
38:18
And so uh what I won't do is write about something that everyone's writing about. Why? Yeah.
38:23
The other problem I face is that I don't write about stuff I'm an expert. I write
38:28
about stuff I know nothing. So when I wrote about I've been
38:33
following Putin, but when the Ukraine war came, first thing I noticed, I bet you noticed it too. It wasn't a war.
38:42
It was a police action. And they weren't killing people. They
38:47
were moving troops across the border. They were talking to Ukrainians. They were And I kept saying to my wife, "This
38:53
is not a war." And you'd see some grandmother going, "Ah, this is just really terrible." You know, and I'm going, "That's not a war. You want to
38:58
see a war? Look at Baghdad day one, right? That's a war. That's what a war looks like." Right? You'd see an explosion
39:04
from 20 miles away. You wouldn't know what blew up, right? Like my wife thought I was nuts. I go, "It's not a
39:09
war. It's not a war." Well, it became a war because, as you and I both know, NATO wanted a war.
39:16
And so, it morphed from being a police action, which I think Putin was trying to throw a fast ball past NATO's chin
39:21
and saying, "Back off on this whole NATO thing." That's correct. And and so when I wrote about that, I
39:29
found about 20 to 40 guys who are trying to get it right, which includes you and
39:35
includes guys like Max Abramson. Do I know that? Do I have that right? Glenn Greenwald. Um, uh, uh, the guy who died,
39:43
what's his name? The guy who got killed by the Ukrainian Gonzalo. Gonzalo Lero, American who was murdered by the
39:49
Ukrainian government. And we could have gotten him out with a phone call and we chose not to because the narrative was Putin's bad. Ukraine's
39:55
a bunch of really nice guys. Super nice guys. It's a democracy. I What a croc of
40:00
[ __ ] That was a lie from head to toe. We wanted a war. We still want war. I have I have intelligence friends, too.
40:07
Not like you, but I have them. And and I was talking to one the other day. I think he likes to talk to me because he
40:12
can talk to me about these subjects. And in his universe, I'm the only guy he can
40:19
talk to for which um he's he doesn't have to worry because everyone else in
40:25
his world is connected to everyone else in his world. So I think he likes to have real honest conversations. One day we're on the phone. He says, "Do you do
40:31
Signal?" I go, "Yeah." So we went to Signal. He said, "Someone was listening to us.
40:38
Boy, there's a lot of that. There's a lot of that. Yeah, I know. So, there's always a narrative. There's
40:43
always one narrative and we're now in an era where you only get to talk about that narrative. You know that. I know that. You and I were just mutually
40:50
Yeah. And and the the penalties for straying from the story, you get fired are real. Yeah. Totally. I mean,
40:57
whatever. I There's been no age in human history where telling the truth, the real truth is rewarded. So,
41:03
so, so, so where you first really won me over. So,
41:09
you and I agree that when you were young, you were a punk. Yeah. The fact that you're so proud of the
41:16
metamorphosis is great. Um, it may have come before this, but where I noticed it
41:21
was the Las Vegas shootings where is we kind of talked a little bit at breakfast. Um,
41:29
here's the funny story. They interviewed that night a guy named Mike Krock and Mike Croc tells
41:34
the night of the shooting. The night of the shooting that was 2017 maybe. I can't remember yet. Yeah.
41:41
And Mike Cron told this story. He didn't look very emotional, which I found a little odd. I, by the way, think all the
41:46
shootings within an Arab bar are not what they appear to be. I'll take it all
41:52
the way back to Coline if you want. Um, but Mike Cron talks about his friend getting shot three times in the chest
41:59
from hundreds of yards away. And and later a marksman said, "Not
42:06
possible. Too much spray. A sniper would be required to hit a guy three times."
42:12
And uh and uh and the guy was just doing this, right? And Mike says his friend
42:18
stuck his fingers in the bullet his own bullet holes to stop the bleeding. I'm
42:23
going, "Now you're lying." Why is Mike lying? Right away, red flag.
42:29
Why is Mike lying? And who is he, by the way? Well, that's a great question. So, Mike
42:35
um then finishes how they put him on a cart and wheeled him out. May I just ask why? I'll tell you in a
42:40
minute. Why did you know he was lying when he said his friend put his own fingers? Because you don't you don't get shot three times in the chest and provide
42:47
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regret being prepared. So then like YouTube, you see it rolls over 15 seconds and then it goes to the
43:55
next YouTube and we're we're watching Vegas like you watch 9/11, right? It was
44:00
it was really 500 people. It it is the biggest shooting is probably Gettysburg.
44:06
Yes. Right. When was the last time you heard a gun antagonist say, "Remember Vegas?
44:14
We got to get rid of guns. Never. Never. Right. And you know why? So it
44:19
rolls to the next interview and it's Mike Croc, new network, same guy. He tells the same story. Now he's looking a
44:25
little more emotional and his story changes just a little, just a little around the edges.
44:31
And then it rolls the next interview and there's Mike Kron again. And I go, why? You got 22,000 people and
44:38
why are you interviewing Mike Kron? And then there were oddities that were always showing up like some lady walking through the crowd saying, "You're all
44:43
going to die tonight." And they we carted her away and things like that. Yeah. Yeah. Weird stuff. And so, um, I
44:51
tried to figure out who Mike was. He's just some hick from Alaska, right? He's just some hick from Alaska. After the
44:57
fact, I looked and just picture him holding an elk by the horns, you know, that he shot.
45:04
The next day the the head of the police said there's no way one guy did it. The
45:10
following day he said one guy did it. Takes a long time to show one guy did it. Right. That's that's something you
45:15
don't know. There's a lot of debris before you figure that out. Um
45:20
there's now a documentary called Route 41. So I dug into this. You what I
45:25
noticed is you stayed with the story for about two weeks maybe and you were
45:30
bringing up you and Coulter jumped in. You know, Paddock was making money. How? Playing video poker. That's his That's
45:38
the way he was making a living. That's like saying I'm a professional crackhead. And uh and then what happens
45:44
is there was shooting all over the place. There was shooting everywhere in the city that day. In the city that night. And so now
45:52
there's, if you don't believe me, there's this documentary called Route 41. and they got stuff I didn't know about, but they also got stuff that um
45:59
that I So, it's kind of an answer key for me to use academic terms. And if you watch Route 41, you will see there were
46:06
shooters everywhere. There are cop cameras showing shooters. And then remember the guy got shot in the leg up
46:11
on the floor where Paddock was. Yes. The the some guy named Jesus or something, right? Some some illegal with two social
46:18
security numbers. Hello. Um and and and and then afterwards reporters try to get
46:25
to his house. His house is being protected by by cars. They had no license plates.
46:31
And and then all of a sudden he goes to Mexico. And when asked, "Well, where'd he go?" They said, "Well, he was
46:37
planning a trip to Mexico." So when I wrote it, I said, "Oh, by the way, Jesus, when you get back, could you stop in? We've got some questions for you."
46:44
Right? And then he comes back and he does one interview on Ellen Degenerous.
46:49
and Allan introduced him saying and he's there with a handler I had already seen. I'm going wait a minute that guy I've
46:56
been seeing that guy a lot that other guy. So Jesus is looking at his feet. His name isn't Jesus but it's something
47:02
like that. Allan introduced saying this is the only interview you're going to do and you got to get it off your chest.
47:08
I'm going oh [ __ ] Here we go. And then and then and then the handler is doing all the talking. Jesus is looking at his
47:14
feet and then we never hear about Jesus again. probably he's in some shallow grave somewhere cuz he's too
47:19
inconvenient. But um I tried to interview him at the time. Really? Yes. Couldn't get to him.
47:25
He drove to Mexico from Vegas, right? Two of them did. An escort.
47:31
Yeah. Then he came back and uh Yeah. I I tried my hardest. Allan works for Mand the company that
47:36
owns Mandandalay. His handler. Yeah. No, no. Um um Ellen Degenerous.
47:42
Oh, Ellen. I'm so sorry. Yeah. And so so so they're buttoning it down. Now what you see from Route 41
47:49
video is there just an enormous amount of chaos. There's enormous number numbers of shooters. Even that night you
47:56
were seeing u videos from cab drivers saying they're shooting over here, they're shooting over there. Was and and
48:02
and there would be some chaos, but there was way too much. There's guys who took
48:07
audios and said here's here bam bam bam bam bam. They hear da da da da da da. So you could hear multiple guns, the whole
48:13
thing. So then what happened? Mike Croc, I start reading trauma surgeons saying
48:18
there's something wrong with the story. You know, if you get hit with, you know, what was AR-15 or something?
48:26
You're going to figure you're going to die out there. You're going to bleed out right there. Even if it doesn't hit a major artery, it's going to turn your
48:31
leg to jello. Chest wounds from a rifle. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So So what would he look like? And so then I saw an
48:37
interview of a of a young woman and she's sitting there in a chair in the hospital and they're interviewing her.
48:42
I'm going, you look pretty perky. And um and and then Mike Cron with a news crew
48:49
goes in and interviews his friend. Now, first and foremost, we know HIPPA says, "You ain't bringing a news crew into a
48:54
hospital room." Second, we know three shots to the chest, he'd be in the ICU.
49:01
The only way you'd know he's alive is that there'd be a beeping on the screen and he'd have hoses coming out of every
49:08
orifice and he would look dead. And so they take the news crew and they interview his friend. He's got a nasal
49:14
canula. A nasal canula. So I'm sitting there thinking, "Oh, so you're you're talking
49:20
with three holes in your chest. What are you sticking your fingers so the air doesn't come flying out of your chest holes?" Right. And then I notice
49:29
the screen's not even plugged in. Now what is Mike Kronck now? He's a state
49:34
senator from Alaska. In Alaska. I think he's a state level state senator. What?
49:40
Yeah. Who's the chief of police? He became governor of Nevada or something,
49:46
right? So, so again, so there's a guy named John Cullen
49:53
who did an analysis of the shooting and his conclusion a relative.
49:58
A relative. Yeah. No, no, no, no, no, it's felt different. John worked for Oracle. He's some on the
50:04
spectrum code head. He also analyzed the Butler shooting. Um the audios of the Butler shooting. He's an on the spectrum
50:11
code head. He's on the spectrum code head. He he he sort of bears down and grabs on something a little too firmly I think.
50:16
But but but he brings on the spectrum conads. Yeah. I know. And he there was pretty good evidence
50:23
that a lot of the shooting was coming from helicopters behind the Mandandalay. And he tracked the transponders turning
50:28
on and off behind the Mandandalay. The story was that Muhammad bin Salman was
50:34
on the top floor, the crown crown prince of ruler of Saudi Arabia. Yes. Yes. a guy who lots of people would
50:40
like to kill. And his theory is is that the Saudis tried to flush him out of
50:46
there and on the way out they would cap him. Now they blew it. If that's the story,
50:52
they blew it. I think the helicopter idea is not bad. But I I did a couple podcasts with John and I said, "John,
50:57
but what about all the shooting on the ground?" And John was kind of dismissive. I go, "You can't dismiss it. You can't let that stuff go. Your
51:04
model's got to include that." But um it occurred
51:10
um a year later Muhammad remember when uh Kosogi got killed.
51:17
What was his name? Jamal Kosigible. Now a non- Kosigible is one of the most famous CIA guys on the planet. Jamal
51:25
Kosogi is one who got diced up and fed to the camels. Yeah. Now he's a New York Times reporter. I think he was also CIA
51:31
Washington Post columnist. Yeah. and he was killed in in the embassy in uh Istanbul I believe.
51:38
Okay. Supposedly on the anniversary
51:43
of the Vegas shootings, supposedly Muhammad bin Salman had a party, locked
51:49
the doors and showed a video of him getting sliced up and said to the royal
51:54
sitting in the room, "Don't even think about it." Now when I wrote about Kosigible, Evan
51:59
was having a cow over Kosigible right when he got killed. I'm going, we're
52:04
killing tens of thousands of Yemenes. We killed 5 million people in the Middle East directly and indirectly due to our
52:12
post 911 responses, right? And I called him ODK, one dead
52:17
Kosogible. I said, "It is insane to worry about one dead guy in a region of
52:22
the world where people die for no reason all the time." who was at war with this his own government, the Saudi
52:28
government. I mean, I'm, you know, I'm obviously not for vivisecting people, but I also think like there Yeah, there
52:35
there's a scale of of evil and starving kids is worse than what happened in
52:41
Kosogi. I agree with you. Right. So, so you were the only mainstream guy who I watched steadily on
52:48
the story, staying with the Vegas shootings, noting that there's something wrong. We got very hassled by law
52:55
enforcement in Las Vegas, which was, you know, I worked at Fox News obviously at the time and big supporters of law
53:02
enforcement. I've always been a big supporter of law enforcement. We've never gotten hassled anywhere. Just the opposite. Oh, you work for Fox News? Oh
53:08
my gosh. Of course. Slow down. Official law enforcement is what got me, man. I mean, they blocked our camera
53:14
position. Oh, yeah. They were totally opposed to us doing that. I've never had that experience.
53:19
So, so let's stay on the shootings just briefly. Yuvaldi. There's problems all over that shooting. Remember that
53:24
shooting in Texas where the guy got into school knew knew the mayor? Yes. There's problems all over the place
53:30
because first of all, there's something like 800 law enforcement guys within reach of the damn thing and the there's
53:36
a town of like 5,000 people and and then they didn't go in for 78
53:42
minutes or something. I go, "Excuse me, you show me 10 cops. probably eight of them have kids
53:50
by a lot I'm right now I'm reading a book called the moral animal it's about human behavior and and out of those
53:56
eight eight would have gone in said I don't care what you say I'm going in you give me a soccer mom she's going in
54:04
right and then there was the mom who did go in and her story was
54:09
incoherent her story she came out and she said this and then she said this and it was not
54:15
consistent And I'm going that's just a narrative thrown on top of it. So what are we looking at here? So
54:21
kayfabe. What does that mean? Kay Fabe is something Eric Weinstein wrote about. He was asked to write an
54:27
essay with a bunch of other scholarly types. And he said that politics was kayfabe. It was professional wrestling.
54:35
And there's all these layers. There's all these tricks. It's way more sophisticated than people think. the way
54:42
you get the way you engage the audience and you have some reality and some non-reality and things change and he he
54:49
talked about politics being kayfabe I I don't think anything you see can be
54:54
interpreted it uh literally and at face value now what would be the purpose however
55:02
well um as I was telling you a friend's binding all my annual reviews
55:09
and I will probably make $1,000 off this. I mean, it's it's not getting rich. Um, I'm paid probably 0.001 cent
55:18
per hour pay for this task. I had to go back. I I've been proofing the drafts
55:25
from previous years. And what I noticed about 2013, 14, 15 is something's
55:31
changed. And what's changed is
55:37
a you could get facts and and you felt like you were getting and the stories
55:42
would break and they would stay that way and and they wouldn't be shifting around and you could say, "Okay, here's what
55:48
happened and here here and this piece fits in here and and and now you can't.
55:54
Now it's like and we talked about using tripe metaphors. Uh here's one, but I really like it. It's like when your GPS
56:01
starts randomly rrooting you and our GPS just keeps randoming
56:06
rrooting ruting. I go I I'm not taking that right turn now, you know. So you just boot the GPS, you break out your
56:12
gaziteer and you figure out where you're going, right? And so, um, we our GPS is
56:18
rerouting us constantly and and one of your guests, Mike Benz, who I
56:23
occasionally chat with briefly, who's very impressive, and as as I've said, I
56:30
don't know everything about him, and I don't mean just in a casual way. I think he's I think there's a complex story
56:37
there, but right now, he's saying the right stuff. He ma he gave a talk one
56:43
day where he talked about how around 2013 the so-called deep state which is a term
56:50
I've tried to figure out where it came from and the I think the guy who gets the most credit is kind of Peter Dale
56:55
Scott who wrote about drug trafficking Berkeley professor and he called it deep politics but I think it predates that
57:02
but that's where I get it from um he said the deep state um realized they
57:08
were losing control of the narrative they had underestimated ated the internet and social media. Exactly.
57:13
And as a consequence, they had to get a hold of it completely. And so then this is where we're at now. We thought Trump
57:19
was going to save us. We thought Elon was going to save us. Um my Twitter feed
57:25
is a dumpster fire. So instead of taking away data, they provide excess noise. So
57:32
now, so now instead of trying to suppress the signal, you just increase the noise.
57:38
I think that's uh very deep and I think it points to the what's h what's happening. I think that's clearly true.
57:45
So what is the fact? That was the title last year's write up. What is the fact?
57:50
Yeah. It's it's impossible. You can't actually control the you can't restrict
57:56
the flow of information across the internet. You throw debris out there. Yeah. Right. It's like just it's a like the
58:02
the the pilots who who throw the debris out the back of the plane so that the
58:08
guided missiles don't know what to hit. Of course. Exactly. Right. Right. And and they also throw out debris so that so that then they can
58:14
prove that it's not true. So you feel like an idiot. Qanon was clearly that Qanon. Yeah. Qanon.
58:21
What was Qanon? I don't know. I don't either. I I avoid, you know, I'd be listening to something and it would
58:26
have useful information and all of a sudden then it would show the hole and here's Trump and his generals are going to save the world.
58:32
I agree. But the interesting I never knew anything about Qanon. I never paid any attention at all. I have a good
58:37
friend who I really admire who's much smarter than I am who because he is smarter than I am took like a year to
58:44
look into QAnon. And what did he get? I don't fully understand it, but here's
58:49
what I understand is that um you know some of the predictions in Qanon came
58:54
true. I mean it it's a sophisticated thing. It's not just oh I think it's a bunch of ex spooks
59:00
for sure. It's not a you know bunch of college kids on no 4chan or whatever they claim it was.
59:06
These are guys who are probably pissed that the system went bad. It was the point of it and it's unclear
59:12
you know who was behind it. I have some theories, but um people I know actually, but uh but I don't know if they're true.
59:19
But what I what is obvious to me is that it was it's a control mechanism
59:26
trying to siphon off some of that energy and move it in a siphoning off the energy. That's less less dangerous direction,
59:31
right? Focus on Wuhan, right? Focus on the lab in Wuhan. That's
59:38
siphoning. That's all American politics. Like h have a race war. Leave us alone as we loot your country. That's right. That's right. It it
59:43
there's a meme out there. There's a joke where the king and his his right-hand man, his chief of staff are looking at
59:50
the angry towns people and some have pitchforks and some have torches and the king says, "Don't you have to worry. You
59:56
just convince the guys with the pitchforks are the enemies of the guys with the torches." Well,
1:00:03
um, so you said that a couple times. Focus on Wuhan. I've I've fallen for that for that
1:00:09
squirrel squirrel uh Wuhan thing. Um, squirrel. Why a blind nut finds a squirrel.
1:00:17
That's funny. Um, that's really I'm stealing that. I'm just making making a note. That's an original. I never know if I
1:00:24
heard it and forgot where I got it. But that original the squirrel. Uh,
1:00:30
what is that distracting? I think it is great. You put me in an asylum overnight.
1:00:35
In an asylum overnight? Yeah. Yeah. My my my hotel is a former asylum. I really Yeah. You didn't ask?
1:00:41
No. Oh yeah, it's a former asylum. And I said, you finally got it right. Well, I think there's there's wisdom
1:00:47
here. Um, there is wisdom here. What are they distracting us from by having us focus on Wuhan?
1:00:52
Well, huge amounts of grift. You had you interviewed um Katherine Austin Fitz.
1:00:58
Yes. I've been blessed. This smart woman. So, I come out of nowhere. I have no
1:01:04
credentials beyond those that I can create. Right. And I think one of the
1:01:10
ways you create it is by being truthful. Yes. And I know truth is everything to you. I I I try to make it that way.
1:01:16
And and uh and and actually in this book, The Moral Animal, they say the reason we
1:01:21
self-delude is so that you can be truthful and deceive your opponent.
1:01:26
That's what self-d delusion is. Yes. Um and and I practiced a lot of that.
1:01:32
I've been adopted by some people who didn't have to adopt me. And so, for
1:01:38
example, I'm tight with Steve Hanky, who's a famous economist, and and
1:01:44
Katherine has been very supportive and and and there's several dozen who who somehow
1:01:52
have decided that that I'm worth their time and and uh and help me and and so
1:01:59
they're they're useful to chat with, they're useful to But Katherine's story, and a lot of people think Katherine's
1:02:05
nuts, right? Um but but she talks about the huge amount of resources that have
1:02:11
been siphoned off and the tens of trillions of dollars of resources that have been
1:02:16
I know Kath Fitz, you can disagree with her. She's not nuts. That's not true. She's not what? Nuts.
1:02:22
Oh, no. I don't think she is nuts. Right. She's a grounded person. She could have things wrong, but that's
1:02:28
totally different. Um, and I had a friend, another friend who I think is phenomenal tell me that she's nuts and
1:02:35
don't don't don't get near her. And I said, "No, I don't think so." Um, and
1:02:40
and but we all can get sucked down into the rabbit holes to the point you can get
1:02:46
out, too. There are days where I wish Why don't you just go play golf? Yeah.
1:02:51
Or you Right now, I'm on a my house is hanging off a 100 foot cliff looking west over Cuga Lake. I can literally
1:02:58
throw rotten fruit off my deck and drop it down into the drink from I can I'll show afterwards I'll show you photos.
1:03:04
It's the view is such that if there are places in the country where the view would cost $20 million not in Ithaca of
1:03:10
course. Um and uh and uh and if people
1:03:16
come and visit they should. It's beautiful. I can't remember why I said that. That's
1:03:22
probably you're saying that people dismiss um you know the the the few who are just
1:03:29
committed to pursuing truth no matter what as crazy and you gave Katherine Austin Fitz as an example and but you
1:03:35
said you can actually go crazy. Oh yeah. By looking too carefully into So the turns out broke the small New
1:03:43
York State smallmouth bass record about three years ago. Broke the New York State largemouth bass record last year.
1:03:48
And I used to fish all the time when I was a kid and I haven't fished it. What's wrong with this picture?
1:03:54
Well, if you got smallmouth bass there, I think you need to fish it on a fly rod. It'll totally change your life.
1:04:00
It's not a fly rod. It's a deep lake. It's a um But you can catch them on the surface with a popper. And if you do, if you
1:04:05
catch a sizable smallmouth on a popper, on a fly rod, you I'm a 18 foot deep schol. um sinking
1:04:12
line. But but so you know, my wife thought that I had fish removed from my thumbs cuz she never saw a picture of me that
1:04:18
didn't have a fish hanging off my my hand. Um but I haven't fished it because you're absorbed in trying to
1:04:24
figure out absorbed in raising kids. I'm absorbed in other things. My wife has issues I got to help her with. Um and and and
1:04:33
I I have this fear of buying a boat. But you as someone who has taken, you
1:04:40
know, ample intellectual energy and intelligence and focused it on trying to figure out what are we watching, which I
1:04:47
think is like a fair way to describe what you're doing, like what is this? What's the truth of it? Has that been
1:04:56
worth doing? That's the question. That is the question. and and there was
1:05:02
a time where I thought if I could get to the truth then then that would help in some way but now
1:05:08
it's not as clear. Tell me what well you know now first of all what is
1:05:13
the truth right the truth is now becoming very ambiguous. Um last year I wrote about the history of World War II.
1:05:19
I did a mini Daryl Cooper. Yes. And it started when I read a book by Diana West who would be good if you
1:05:26
interviewed her. Um, and it was it's this all revisionist history of World
1:05:31
War II. And you go, "Well, why would you want to read that?" Well, it turns out I think the story we got about World War II is all wrong. Actually,
1:05:37
I think that's right. And and then I read about FDR and FDR's right-hand man was a Soviet spy.
1:05:44
Certainly was right. And and therefore, confirmed. We should have been One can make the argument we should have sided with
1:05:50
Hitler and fought Stalin. Patton said that. So, and and maybe there wouldn't have been a Holocaust,
1:05:56
right? you know, there's but but the the but Stalin was awful by any metric and we we we weren't his ally. Um the story
1:06:04
is that there were a few missing American soldiers at the end of World War II in Russian territory. 15 to
1:06:11
20,000 were missing and we left them there. And then you read about Pearl Harbor. We
1:06:16
all sort of know the Pearl Harbor stories now what we're told. But I I dug into that and you find out the Pearl Harbor we knew to the morning that Pearl
1:06:23
Harbor was going to get attacked. Stalin who was going to be attacked. He wanted us to take the Japanese off his flank
1:06:29
and and FDR's right-hand man was okay with that because he was a Soviet spy. Right. Then I read about FDR in the
1:06:35
Great Depression. You find out that every single penny he spent trying to help the the forgot AMD Schllays the
1:06:40
forgotten man was spent to buy votes. Every last penny. He was a sociopath
1:06:46
and every the only thing he could do was lie. He was a compulsive liar. his his inner circle had to constantly cover for
1:06:53
his lying and and and and and the only thing he's used for now is every time
1:06:58
you want to grow government, you cite FDR and and so so I I read a half a dozen
1:07:05
books that sort of went at these different angles and wrote about it. So I start out knowing nothing and then I
1:07:11
write about it and I try to write to learn which is the most terrifying part of AI by the way. If you take out the
1:07:18
writing, you take out you take out the thought. Completely agree. The other thing that scares me about it,
1:07:24
boy, squirrel. Um,
1:07:29
AI is going to make the system very unforgivingly brittle. I'm I'm not worried as much about the authoritarian
1:07:35
slant that Elon occasionally talks about, which might be just to fake us out. Who knows? Um, I am worried that
1:07:41
we're going to reach a point where, you know, when everything everything computer does is binary. So, you go to the grocery store, you slip your credit
1:07:47
card in, it says you're good to go or didn't work. Swipe it again. Didn't work. Sorry. You're out of here. Right.
1:07:53
They debank people. This is a big problem. What happens when everything is so AIed up that that that there's no
1:08:00
person anywhere with an earshot who can help you at all. No one who can say, "Okay, let me let me get this for you."
1:08:07
Right. Right. there's been a misunderstanding or there's yeah some sort of human nuance required happened on the other
1:08:13
day on a credit card where I was talking to a lady and it kept sending me in these loops and she finally straight out but what happens when the code is being
1:08:18
written by computer so there's no human who understands the code so the system will be very brittle be
1:08:25
very unforgiving forget about whether it's used nefariously forget about whether someone uses as an authoritarian
1:08:30
tool which is very real possibility and I worry about that a lot um just the
1:08:36
fact that no one will know who's driving the cab ever on anything. And and also now you're taking out the
1:08:43
intellectual part. So when I write when you write when I write a scientific paper, the project's not done until I've
1:08:50
written it because that's where you you you lay it out. And if you can't put it on paper coherently with no internal
1:08:56
contradictions, you're not done. You're not done understanding it. You're not done understanding. So the
1:09:03
writing is understanding. I so I think people who don't write for a living or aren't forced to write regularly don't
1:09:10
this concept is a hard one but the it's through writing or I would also say speaking you know public
1:09:17
speaking that putting concepts into words makes
1:09:22
the concepts intelligible to the person who's articulating them like you don't really understand something until you've
1:09:27
been forced to write about it. It's like a comedy shop. you go, you know, the the great comedians will go
1:09:33
down to the cheapo comedy shops to practice to figure out what works, what
1:09:39
doesn't work, right? And then they go on Johnny Carson. Exactly. And so, um, so you
1:09:44
So when there's no writing, there's no thinking, right? So I read about Maui, the fires.
1:09:51
I wrote about that very clearly a land grab. You may remember how many kids died.
1:09:58
No. Do you remember the USA article said 750 kids are missing? Yep.
1:10:03
Right. When a kid's missing after something like that, they're dead. But they're not missing. They're dead. Maybe
1:10:09
a couple found their way. Someone drove them out of town, but they're dead. Try to find anywhere a statement about dead
1:10:15
kids now. You can't find it. You go to Wikipedia. You You search the word child. You search the word. You read it.
1:10:22
There's no mention of dead children. There were 750 kids missing according to
1:10:27
USA Today. Then all of a sudden the governor saying, "Well, you know, we're worried about land speculators, so we're going
1:10:34
to buy the land up so that the speculators can't get it." And I go, "So you can sell it to your friends,
1:10:39
right? Is it possible maybe they mowed down Lahina because they want to put up
1:10:45
resorts and things, right? But what also was out there was this idea of directed
1:10:51
energy weapons starting the fires." Now, I think that was a dead end. I don't think directed energy weapons were used.
1:10:58
Even though there's a it's they're called DEWs. Even though there's a DEW facility on Maui, you don't need that.
1:11:05
And there were videos. I go, I think those are fake. So, I found nothing. But I used it as an excuse
1:11:12
to read up on DEWs. And I was reading Rand reports from 40 years ago. And And
1:11:18
what what is a directed energy weapon? It's basically Star Wars. And so it's Reagan Star Wars and everyone said, "Oh,
1:11:25
that's just science fiction." I go, "Well, Gorbachov seemed to get want to get rid of him every chance he got." So
1:11:30
Gorbachov took him very seriously. So it turns out what you do is you put something in space and it shoots some
1:11:37
sort of energy, guided energy down to the surface of the earth and it can the different frequencies have different
1:11:44
efficacies and so some are really good at at at hitting a target. some broad now like microwaves are different than
1:11:50
than some sort of ultraviolet laser. I'm I'm not very good at this stuff, but um
1:11:56
and and then I started reading about how what they do is they use a pulse of one laser to punch a hole through the atmosphere and then the second pulse
1:12:02
would go through that hole. I mean, it's really clever stuff. This is 40-year-old Rand reports.
1:12:09
What do they have behind the payw wall 40 years later now? the best I think
1:12:15
evidence of a DEW being used and I I was reading about fires in different places
1:12:20
where trees were burning that shouldn't have burned and cars that there were there's
1:12:26
I wrote about it if someone wants to go read it that was a couple years ago um
1:12:31
the best evidence of a DEW so if you've got these you got to test them right
1:12:36
it's like why you need why you need you know boweapons labs in Ukraine you got to test them Um, you can't use lab rats.
1:12:45
Um, you look at the Quebec fires,
1:12:51
uh, satellite imagery of the Quebec fires. Very mysterious. About 26ish
1:12:57
fires started simultaneously. How do you know some? Well, if a fire starts and then another one starts, it'll be
1:13:03
downwind. So, you'll see it'll look like the Hawaiian Islands, right? Right. Um, boom. All at once.
1:13:11
26 fires in a crudely buckshot pattern
1:13:16
that was 350 miles in diameter.
1:13:22
Boy, that's a determined arsonist or at least 26 of them.
1:13:27
Yeah. With in the middle of nowhere. Yeah. With helicop I mean there no roads. So but but say no a cell phone can't do it.
1:13:35
You know nothing, right? They're in the middle of nowhere and all of a sudden they all start simultaneously and I'm going, "Okay, that probably was them
1:13:42
testing out their weapons and we have a lot of wars to test weapons, right?" So
1:13:48
you so your your basic overarching theory is around
1:13:54
20145 it became clear to the people running the world that you can't keep
1:14:00
information under wraps anymore because the internet is impossible to control. Mhm.
1:14:06
And so you had to flood flood people's brains with extraneous
1:14:11
and misleading information and shut down people. They they shut they booted the president of the United
1:14:17
States off Twitter. Yeah. How is that possible? Cuz he was a racist. That's what they
1:14:24
racist. That's what they told me. Racist, right? He was a racist, right? And you know, so many 70,000 got
1:14:32
booted off Twitter. my sister-in-law who's she had a Twitter feed. She can't get it back.
1:14:37
You know, there somehow I don't know how I saw what was her crime. She must have said something favorable
1:14:43
about Trump or something. I don't know. Um so, but
1:14:48
the control of information, the shaping of people's understandings of the world around them. That's that's the whole
1:14:55
game right there. So, I used to say the internet was democracy's greatest hope and worst
1:15:00
enemy. Hm. And that it was a battle. I don't think we're going to win it. And the reason I
1:15:07
don't is because it's too powerful. And so whoever has control of it will
1:15:14
then have that power. So it's only a battle for who gets
1:15:19
control of it. Control of information. Control the the digital world. Yeah.
1:15:25
So if you see voices out there dissenting from I hear voices, D. If you if you see if
1:15:32
you see or hear voices that are dissenting from the official story line, they're going to have to be silenced or
1:15:38
eliminated. I mean, well, look at what happened. Look at the ambushes that occurred when Thomas
1:15:45
Massie, who I think is great, Ran Paul, who I think has matured immensely, and
1:15:51
uh who is the third Republican who who stepped away from the narrative and all
1:15:57
of a sudden the attacks were relentless. Now, that could just be Trump being Trump.
1:16:03
It wasn't just Trump attacking them, though. I know. Marjorie Taylor Green. Marjorie Taylor Green, who by the way is
1:16:09
nowhere near as stupid. I mean, she's not even stupid. She ran a construction company. Oh, I know.
1:16:15
And her um she just doesn't have whatever that normal the fear that
1:16:20
controls people in DC. We're like, I can't. But how do you turn on Thomas Massie?
1:16:26
Marjorie Taylor Green at least played a role in Cave Fabe that you can imagine drawing fire.
1:16:32
Massiey's this guy, you know, who who built his own house and fixes his own
1:16:37
car and he's he's an engineer. He's he's he's he's he he's the he's an archetype
1:16:44
of who we ought to be as a country. as a country. I so vehemently agree.
1:16:50
And they turned on him. Yeah. Well, I haven't.
1:16:56
We know why they turned on texted with him this morning. Um, no, I I mean, you know, you could say I
1:17:01
disagree with with Thomas Massie, but if you think Thomas Massie is the problem, you are the problem.
1:17:06
I couldn't agree more. Um, I couldn't agree more just because first of all, he's a decent man, which always matters
1:17:12
to me, and I think it should matter to all of us. I You could, you know, give Thomas Massie a routing number and he's
1:17:17
not going to take a dollar. He's just not. He's not going to He's the only one without a handler. That's true. And um and I think we
1:17:24
should admire that even if you think that all members of Congress should be required to have handlers, it's okay to live in a world where one doesn't.
1:17:30
That's that what I find. So right, it's not okay to live in a world where everyone else does. No, I agree with you. But I just find
1:17:37
what's so interesting and there's a religious quality to all of these conversations that I find so striking.
1:17:43
It's like it's okay if you have, you know, all this power, all this money. If
1:17:49
you're running the US government or whoever you are with a lot of power, you know, you can afford to have some
1:17:55
percentage of the population not play along. You don't need doesn't need to be an Albanian election in 1982. Like, you
1:18:02
can have some disscent unless you're an authoritarian state. I guess that's right. I mean but even in
1:18:09
an effective authoritarian state in Saudi Arabia in the Emirates these are you know basically theocracies they
1:18:16
don't they don't agree with that but they you know these are Islamic states under Sharia law you can kind of
1:18:21
disscent it's okay you just can't do anything really threatening of course right but more disscent is allowed in Abu
1:18:28
Dhabi than in DC I just find that just absolutely incredible like what is this why why can't they allow Thomas Massie
1:18:34
to just like have his own Massie views here's a vote He's a vote, okay, but you got you got
1:18:40
hundreds of others. Like I I just think it's weird. There's this desire to make sure that nobody sings off the song
1:18:47
sheet. Like, and that person must be killed. And I Wow. I just I don't enforce that among my own children.
1:18:54
So, um,
1:18:59
do you know what I'm talking about? No, I absolutely know about We used to allow opposing views.
1:19:05
Yeah. I mean, look, if someone is really a threat to the system, well, I think that should be allowed personally cuz
1:19:12
the people only depends on in what way, but yes, in what way? I I have a very wide strike zone for
1:19:17
that. But I get it. If the system is like, I'm sorry, you're an actual threat. We have to kill you. Okay, systems exist to preserve themselves. I
1:19:23
understand that. What I really can't even comprehend is someone out there in a place I've never been and never will
1:19:30
go among 350 million people is making a noise that I disagree with. I must crush him. What is that? That's just weird to
1:19:36
me. Why Why are you going to the effort to shut down all descent?
1:19:43
I I don't know. But um but it's that's that's that's what's happening. Oh, I know.
1:19:50
Not to swing the topic yet again, let me let me get back to the universities.
1:19:56
Um people don't understand universities. Uh there are people who do obviously,
1:20:01
but there the average person doesn't. So, so people are going to say I'm talking my
1:20:06
book. Let me let me take this opportunity with your gargantuan following to explain how universities
1:20:12
work. So that Well, let me just say before you begin that I'm amazed by the broadness of your
1:20:18
thinking, right or wrong. You're certainly thinking um thoughts that most
1:20:23
people don't allow themselves to think. And you are a tenure professor at an Ivy League college and you still have your
1:20:30
job apparently. So that does say something. It would be hard to fire me apparently. I mean, part of part of the problem is
1:20:35
one of the one of the reasons I got cancelled is because I twice fought unionizations. Yeah.
1:20:42
And the first time was at the request of the dean of faculty. Second time was at the request of the provost of late night
1:20:48
phone call. You got to fight this. You got to put together a team. And that's the now president. And so if they fired
1:20:53
me, that that group was sort of behind my cancellation. So firing me would have been hard because you know you know
1:20:59
witness number one would be did you ask column to to fight the unions and did that lead to you know them cancelling
1:21:06
him and stuff like that. Um I really think Cornell is great. I think
1:21:12
most universities are fine. We needed a fast ball past our chin. Great example
1:21:18
Claudine Gay shouldn't be president of Harvard. Shouldn't be on the faculty. Shouldn't have a PhD in my opinion. that
1:21:25
is the sign of the rot that has gotten into the universities, but that it's still an exceptional rot. So I I I don't
1:21:32
see people at Cornell that look like Claudian gay to me. And and if you actually look in the the whole DEI
1:21:38
thing, you say, well, universities are super duper DEI. And I go, you guys are forgetting that a year ago
1:21:45
or two years ago, if you weren't DEI, you got destroyed. The whole system was geared up to make
1:21:51
sure you paid dearly if you weren't DEI. So, you had to have your deans of diversity and you you the the world was
1:21:58
demanding it. It and that don't forget this was a world where where where biological men were were competing in
1:22:04
women's sports. They still kind of are, but at least it's now starting to dissipate. Um, and that was considered
1:22:11
totally normal and was considered rational and if you fought it, you get fired and things like that. So, so the
1:22:17
universities were were simply responding. Now, they had gotten way left-wing. My colleagues were all hired,
1:22:25
all hired based on their skills, guaranteed. I would have I'd remember a case if it was a DEI hire. I remember a
1:22:33
case because I would have fought it. I would have screamed. I don't shut up on things like that. We try to find the best person in the world to hire and we
1:22:39
go for that person if we can and we do pretty well. Um,
1:22:45
and so if you were on a campus, you wouldn't see what we're hearing about. I don't think
1:22:51
I you'd walk around the camp go everything just looks pretty normal as opposed to the hardest of the hard sciences though.
1:22:56
Do you think that that's the problem? If I walked over the art squad I'd see some Looney Tunes, right? Um and we're we're now destroy
1:23:03
the cost of an education is too high to waste it.
1:23:08
And so if you're going to spend $300,000, you can't you can't go into a
1:23:14
career that you make 40,000 or that you make 25 because you're a barista. Yeah,
1:23:20
right. It's just no longer even viable. So, you have to So, colleges, if I were
1:23:26
president of Cornell, I'd put together an elite committee of people I absolutely trusted and say, you guys are
1:23:31
in charge of trying to figure out where we should be in 20 years and how to get there
1:23:36
because because we can't be here in 20 years. Um, it's not going to work. Arts
1:23:42
and sciences and this whole idea of this broadly based education was formed prior
1:23:47
to the cost and was formed um when when wealthy people went to college. So you
1:23:54
could be frivolous if you wanted and and and and getting a sheepkin could get you
1:23:59
onto Wall Street and be the lead analyst for all the dots Henry Blahett style, right? Those days are gone and so
1:24:07
colleges are going to have to tighten up. Um but but my colleagues are I would
1:24:12
say on average out of 20 out of 30 colleagues I'll say maybe I think 27 of
1:24:18
them are left of center and I can't explain why. Now when I talk
1:24:23
to them, totally rational people, totally reasonable people. The way it
1:24:28
works as a chemist is you are an entrepreneur. You get a job, they give you startup money to get started. You
1:24:33
have to then go raise money. Funding rates are ballpark maybe 15% of the
1:24:38
people get funded. By the way, the ones who never get funded, they've dropped off. So that 15%age people still trying.
1:24:46
And I'm going to brag. I put 21 in a row successfully. Do the math on that.
1:24:52
That's that's improbable. Um, but my colleagues are constantly battling. They're putting together this program.
1:24:58
They're running research groups of anywhere from five to 30. No one pays for that. They raised the
1:25:04
money from the federal system. You say, "Well, the feds shouldn't pay the money." Well, years and years ago, we decided the way to run a research
1:25:11
program in the United States was through universities and federal grants. Was a Sputnik thing. There's
1:25:18
other ways to do it, but we set up that system. And if you look at all the startup
1:25:24
companies around the country and all the pharmaceutical agents, they all you can trace their origins back to academic
1:25:31
labs. Fizer discovers far fewer drugs than they buy from some small startup
1:25:39
that came out of some biochemistry department or some medical school or something. And so so so the academic
1:25:46
research area is is the foundation level starting point. I have a number of friends who are worth a fortune because
1:25:52
they patented something and that's actually good because it would be neutered and not even usable by
1:25:59
the free market if it didn't have the patent coverage. And so it made sense. So so it puts an incentive system in
1:26:06
there, right? Cornell gets some, the investigator gets some, the department gets some, and the world gets a new
1:26:12
drug. It's not a crazy system. Now, there's other ways to do it, but that's not how we do it. And we produce the
1:26:19
best science, so it worked. Now, the problem is that Trump threw a
1:26:26
fast ball past our chin and we deserved it. We absolutely deserved it. So he's saying look get rid of the the the guys
1:26:33
in sports which Penn did with Leah Thomas you know get rid of the DEI which
1:26:38
a lot of schools are trying to and at the same time ducking you know naming them by different things but but the
1:26:45
fast ball was needed. The problem is he he he as you said at breakfast it was
1:26:54
the social stuff that Trump was going after but you don't go after the social stuff with social stuff you go after by
1:27:00
going after the money right so Harvard's locked down for $9 billion of research funds and my understanding
1:27:07
is it's still locked down Cornell's locked down for over a billion nine Harvard was getting nine billion
1:27:12
from the feds for research of various and it's on hold and it's on old and the word cancel
1:27:18
versus frozen. I I I was trying to figure it out. Colombia I thought it was it can cancel or Colombia got crushed.
1:27:24
Um and then Colombia put out a me a memo that said cancelled. Now I don't know if
1:27:31
that's because it's been cancelled, but what my my understanding is the money's not flowing.
1:27:37
Now the problem is is a trustee said to me, you know, if this goes into 2026,
1:27:42
we're in a world of trouble. I said, "If this goes into August, we're in a world of trouble. I've got colleagues with 15
1:27:50
person research groups that are all funded by these federal grants." And they do good science. They do good
1:27:56
science. There's probably some crap in the humanities, but they suck about $10,000 of of grant money out of the
1:28:02
system to do that stupid thing. I don't know. And I don't even know if it's stupid. Um,
1:28:07
and there's no me. So now if if you're getting your PhD, there's no one who can
1:28:13
give you a posttock. That's the next step. That step's broken. And so the system right now is
1:28:18
on it's flatlined. And and I I really wish they' gotten rid
1:28:24
of USA ID. And you told me they did. They just moved it. Well, that's a problem. But but I think I think the
1:28:30
academic research system was working. I think part of the problem from a civilian perspective are the endowments.
1:28:36
Now, let me explain the endowments. So for let me just complete the thought by saying it's the no tax part that I
1:28:44
think drives some of us to want to sort of storm the campus with guns because that's everyone's getting I mean the
1:28:51
private equity guys are taking all their income as interest so they're paying half the rate but for a normal person
1:28:56
you know you're paying over half of everything you make to the government and it's being spent on nonsense or
1:29:02
given to Ukraine and then there are these giant hedge funds called
1:29:08
university endow endowments that aren't paying any taxes. And I think that can really drive people bonkers, including me.
1:29:14
Well, I understand there are some subtleties of endowments.
1:29:19
Again, it's not to say that you're not 100% correct, but but I at least want to
1:29:25
say to your listeners so they understand what they're complaining about. Um first and foremost um there
1:29:34
supposedly are rules where the universities are not supposed to be competing with the private sector. So
1:29:39
and and they they get around those. But if Cornell builds housing is making
1:29:44
money off the housing in town that kind of breaks the rule, right? But they build dorms and you know things like
1:29:50
that. So you're right about that. Um the endowments are a are a funny game. First and foremost,
1:29:57
um I looked this up last week. Um approximately 50% of all endowment spin
1:30:06
off. So it's it spins off at revenue and Harvard's has been collecting since 1656.
1:30:12
Um 50% of the money spun off goes to financial aid,
1:30:19
which means making college more affordable. admittedly not very
1:30:24
affordable for a lot of people but making more affordable. So, so, so half of the money being spun off is going
1:30:29
right back to education of the students. Another 20% civilian is for academic
1:30:34
programs which means paying for things that that would have to be paid for or
1:30:40
we'd have to do without. And I would argue we got bloated. So, there's things we should have done without. If you
1:30:46
looked at the dining program now compared to what we they have now, it's really unbelievable. I'm not against good food. I'm against
1:30:52
DEI administrators and administrators in general. Like college should be focused on agree with that. I agree with that.
1:30:57
That and and that's where we should have gotten the fast ball past our should any of these schools have more uh tenure professors than they do
1:31:03
administrators? I don't think so. The admin the administrative bloat is a combination of all the problems that
1:31:10
that drive you nuts and the fact that the the interactions between the university and the the feds and the
1:31:17
states has gotten more complicated. Right. So, so for example, uh you need
1:31:23
way more bean counters and grant writers and well, no grant writers are me. Okay,
1:31:29
they're us. The the grants are being written by the faculty. Um again, the DEI Michigan's DEI payroll is was 93
1:31:38
million last time I read about it. That's a lot of money, right? But but but um but just when you get a federal
1:31:45
grant, there's so many things you have to do. It used to they ran it out of a shoe box. Here's your check. Spend it
1:31:51
wisely. You know, that's what it's no longer like that. You now it reached the absurd point where you're supposed to
1:31:57
make statements about how you're going to save the whales and donate organs to Guatemalan orphans and things like that.
1:32:02
And I think Trump's going to successfully get a lot of that crap out of there. He would save Cornell a fortune if he could get rid of all of
1:32:08
DI. Now, I do think the original idea of affirmative action makes sense. It
1:32:15
basically said, "Go find people who are being missed.
1:32:20
Look into the dusty corners where you normally don't look and see if you find talent." Right? There's a famous chemist
1:32:27
named Henry Gilman. I thought the SAT was designed to do that. No, the it turns out the SAT has
1:32:34
problems now. And the reason it has problems is because um when Kaplan got a hold of it, it they
1:32:42
and they they they for profit coach kids on how to do well and then they made it
1:32:49
such that the SAT could be taken three times and you get to use only the one you like,
1:32:55
all of a sudden the cost of maximizing your score on the SAT became
1:33:01
prohibitive. And so it's a legitimate argument that someone coming out of the hood, right,
1:33:06
cannot take the Kaplan course and take the SAT3 test. So um so but you shouldn't get rid of it. You should just
1:33:12
be aware of what it's telling you. Would it be possible to design a corruptionfree
1:33:18
screen for intelligence and you know initiative? Shut up racist. Um,
1:33:25
no, but I mean like so, so the idea was that the SAT was supposed to democratize
1:33:31
education. We're just going to locate and discover kids who've got double 800s who you wouldn't have spotted.
1:33:36
Exactly. Right. And actually have a child who got an 800 um couldn't get into college. So um so
1:33:44
clearly it's like the system has gotten so corrupt. So um but but the idea and
1:33:49
Kaplan you said corrupted it as well. Well, it it it that it it kind of corrupted the SAT, right? That's what
1:33:55
I'm saying. So now the GRE, which is the next level, is nowhere near as corrupted it because by then the students don't
1:34:00
give a damn. They I'll take the Jerry and they So it's it's more legit. But is there I mean, but the idea that
1:34:06
of a colorblind, classblind, pure, you know, meritocracy
1:34:13
test is I mean, why give up on that? Here's what I think we should do. I used
1:34:18
I I was graduate uh I I was a graduate director of graduate studies which which
1:34:24
involved admission into our grad program for seven years. Record
1:34:29
the only guy who held the four administrative positions in the chemistry department itself. That's pretty good for being the chemistry
1:34:35
douchebag. Um and and you learn about things and I read undergraduate
1:34:41
admissions on purpose for a number of years because and and you read regions. So I might read Manhattan for example
1:34:48
and you learn about who's applying and stuff like that. And what what I think you want to look for is a system where
1:34:53
you see evidence that a kid overcame something and it's not about color. Although you
1:35:00
could say non-statistically it's about color, right? But a kid from the Ozarks, you know, JD Vance,
1:35:08
who I find his origin story a little suspicious, I must admit. Um but but but
1:35:14
so we had a kid who applied and everything was sunshines and Skittles rainbows in his application and one of
1:35:19
his letter writers said his mother died here, his father died here, he was raised by his neighbors, you know, and I'm going and he didn't mention it.
1:35:27
I hope you let him in. Oh my god, yes. I you give me in graduate admissions. I
1:35:33
see some kid from Stanford with a I see some kid from Stanford with 3.0. I didn't take him because a 3.0 is a kid
1:35:40
who accepted a 3.0. 0. You show me, I'll take a 4.0 from St. Mary's College of
1:35:46
the Divinity because that kid said, "Here's the They said, "Here's the highest you can get to." That kid got there, right? MIT kids with lousy GPA or
1:35:55
lousy grad students, even though they're smarter than hell, but they're cocky.
1:36:01
Now, um, it turns out, you show me a kid from Stanford with a 3.0 who played football, I take the kid in a heartbeat.
1:36:08
You show me a kid from Stanford who who who who who is a 3.0 who is in you know
1:36:14
who is you know brilliant violinist. I'll take that kid.
1:36:19
My here's my son. My son applies to Cornell for reasons you know he was going to get in.
1:36:26
But his resume I I had one son who was underachiever as a kid who's now
1:36:32
phenomenal and the one who was a superachiever. What's superachieving? And we didn't push him because it was a
1:36:39
pain in the ass. We're driving all the time. All state orchestra, first violin,
1:36:47
gold medalist in the eight state regional gymnastics championship. Fifth in the nation equestrian,
1:36:54
played lacrosse. Got a resume better than that. So here's
1:37:01
what happened. my older son who could care less about school, just nothing.
1:37:07
His teacher also, sweet kid, no attention. At one point, I said to a teacher, said, "The only kids he's
1:37:12
beaten are crackbies." And she kind of blew a snap bubble and then said, "Yeah,
1:37:18
he's now phenomenally successful. He's a super dad. I'm so proud of the level of
1:37:24
dadness that he is. He's the director of event management at the Council on Foreign Relations."
1:37:31
After being the most underwhelming kid in high school, he grew up. He climbed Mount Stupid a little bit late. And
1:37:37
fortunately, he was in a family that could help him get over it when the time came.
1:37:42
The thing that we get credit for is not breaking him. Is not
1:37:48
is not forcing him into a mold that didn't fit. You know who he is? You know the book for the Bull?
1:37:54
Of course. Child Story. Yeah. Yeah. That book wasn't for kids. That was for the parents.
1:37:59
That was telling the parents, "Your kid is Ferdinand." Maybe my other one was Mike Mulligan Steam
1:38:06
Shovel. Yeah. Right. Faster the the more people watched, the faster he went. Ironically,
1:38:13
the overachiever got to Cornell and got lost. The the underachiever got just grew
1:38:20
nicely in college. Now the the younger one is now a professional after trying cubicle farming and all that crap that
1:38:27
you get by being a business major at Cornell Hotel School. He's a professional violinist in Boston.
1:38:34
Better outcome. Better outcome. Bank of Dad's important because violinists in Boston don't make a lot of money.
1:38:41
But but I'm happy to support it because it's his soul. You know why he's a prof. You want neurobiology?
1:38:47
My wife was flat on her back when she was pregnant. She put headphones against her stomach and played classical music
1:38:52
when he was in the womb. I know prenatal development is important. By the time he
1:38:58
was three years old, his friends were singing bingo and he's listening to orchestra pieces and he he'd say, "I
1:39:03
like this part right here." And you'd hear the second violence coming there and he go right there. I like that. And
1:39:08
I'm going, "Holy [ __ ] this kid's got an ear. He has an ear." Like you he
1:39:14
developed an ear womb. Mhm. So don't do that to your womb. You'll
1:39:19
have a musician in your family if you do that. So I want to ask you um here since you
1:39:26
mentioned the struggle, you know, the the triumph, but also the struggle to pay for it because the economy doesn't
1:39:32
support young people very well. Since you did call the financial collapse um
1:39:38
of 2008, it sounds like in 2002. In 2002. So you couldn't short you
1:39:44
couldn't get rich shorting anything. Um I I shorted twice and it's shorting's for fools and pros and the ven diagram
1:39:50
of those two is almost that. That's exactly right. They're both I know both. Yeah. Uh where are we now?
1:39:59
We're in a catastrophic situation. Catastrophe seems strong.
1:40:04
Yeah. Well, you I I think you can make arguments the economy has a lot of problems and and and there's there's a
1:40:10
paradoxical problem with the economy and that is you can go up to any 7-Eleven and they can't hire. They're there
1:40:17
there's help wanted ad. So, it looks like an economy burning burning hot but if you look at the high end there's
1:40:24
layoffs going everywhere. So, there's foreshadowing of of real trouble coming.
1:40:29
So, college graduates, even Ivy League graduates, humanities graduates, not engineers or chemists, but you know, the
1:40:35
mark the business guy or whatever, they're having trouble getting jobs, the kind that they're trained for. Certainly.
1:40:40
Yeah. But there's just I mean, I know a bunch of them and but you see it in the numbers. Educated 22 year olds are
1:40:47
having trouble getting jobs, but 7-Eleven can't hire, right? So, what what is that? Well, so this is
1:40:53
a normal sort of it's a distorted version of of I think a recession coming
1:40:59
or we're in. Now, where it gets complicated is if you don't believe the inflation numbers, which I don't, and
1:41:06
you've got Chapwood Index and Shadow Stats that give inflation numbers that are probably on average six or 7% higher
1:41:13
than the official numbers. The official numbers are corrupted and I don't want to go into it because it's technical,
1:41:19
but but the CPI is the CPI is crap, right? I agree with that. Now, here's the problem. If the economy
1:41:24
has been growing 2 and a half% and the inflation numbers are underestimated by four, means we've been in a recession
1:41:30
the whole way. Yeah. Moving backwards. We're moving backward. And you say, "Well, that can't happen. The recessions last, you know, two quarters or
1:41:36
whatever." And I go, "No, the British Empire was in a recession for a century, right? They just shrunk and shrunk and
1:41:42
shrunk." And so, so no, you can be in you can you can be in a slow decline.
1:41:48
Um, so so but that's not what we're that's not the catastion means decline.
1:41:53
Yeah, actually I I think it's a stupid word because it's like you play golf.
1:41:58
No. Well, if you play golf and you you go down into the sand trap according to the
1:42:04
definition of a recession, once you start climbing out, you're out. You ask a golfer if he's out of the sand trap
1:42:09
because he's on the ups slope of the trap. He's not. No. So the fact that your economy is now
1:42:15
growing again, if it's coming out of a hole, as far as I'm concerned, you're not out until you've gotten past that
1:42:20
previous period. So you're at par. Yeah. So you're at par, right? No, that's not the catastrophe because they
1:42:26
happen all the time. And we've been able to either cover them or fake them or prevent them through very bad monetary
1:42:33
policy policies, right? And what's bad? Um pumping the stock market is just stupid.
1:42:40
But but you know private equity buys private equity um buys uh has bought up
1:42:47
80% of the hospitals the healthcare and what they do is they go in and they
1:42:53
they they buy some organization
1:42:58
they strip it of its assets. They load it with debt. They pay themselves huge
1:43:03
fees and bonuses and then they sell the shell of a company which is now effectively worthless
1:43:10
into the marketplace like to pension funds who are not smart enough to
1:43:15
recognize that they just bought a piece of crap. And according to um Gretchie Morgansson, a 47%
1:43:23
bankruptcy rate. Now post sale. Post sale. Now as long as it's
1:43:31
profitable to buy viable companies, destroy them, sell the shell, and make
1:43:36
money. Monetary money's too loose.
1:43:42
Precious capital. If capital is is of real value,
1:43:48
um it's a moat. So a good businessman can get capital, bad businessman can't.
1:43:54
The fact that Black Rockck could get get buy single family dwellings, which is a
1:44:00
terrible business, you really can't make money unless you can unless there's a housing boom and
1:44:07
you leverage up to hell. The fact that they could get it for at an interest
1:44:13
rate of 0.15% is a highly flawed system. And that's
1:44:18
where the inventory went after 07 to09. It got bought up by these guys who could lever up and then charge rents to
1:44:25
people. So they basically scoop scooped up the housing market with with free with free money
1:44:31
with free money kind of free money unlike you know credit cards which are 25%. Right? And not just free. I mean,
1:44:38
if once you factor in inflation, it's it's a gift. Yeah. It's it's it's it's it's profitable money.
1:44:45
Literally, just taking the loan is profitable. Yes. You don't have to do anything with it. Yes. Right. Yeah. So, so here here's what happened.
1:44:53
Somehow um the market has ceased to respond. And the reason the market's important
1:44:59
is because um is because of the wealth effect. And that is that if you own
1:45:07
equities, you own a house and they're soaring in price, your spending habits change. You you you I'm having a great
1:45:15
year, for example. So when the Bank of Dad has to provide some liquidity to the children, I feel okay about it, right?
1:45:23
Um the the problem is is that um it it's a false wealth. It's not real wealth.
1:45:29
It's a false wealth. So what happened? Well, I'm getting tired of seeing these. I see
1:45:35
four-year plots of the equity market and they make various comparisons. I go, don't go back four years. Don't go back
1:45:41
40 years. Go back 120 years. So, I follow about 25 metrics of valuation.
1:45:49
Valuation is inherently a price of the market relative to something it ought to track.
1:45:55
whether it's the earnings, the revenues, the book value, um I think called
1:46:01
Tobin's Q, the GDP, which is a fictional number as I've heard you recently say,
1:46:07
um but I found about 25 of them. So you can kind of track whether markets have gotten expensive relative to the thing
1:46:13
it ought to track. Now, um around 1981,
1:46:20
the markets were at the cheapest valuation arguably in history. inflation
1:46:26
was scaring everyone, which is why they were cheap. Um, it turns out that the boomers were just
1:46:33
hitting the workforce, so demographics was a huge tailwind starting around
1:46:38
then. And most economists agree demographics is huge. Now, I I'm
1:46:43
disingenuous in that I quote economists selectively. In the next sentence, I'll probably say something horrible about
1:46:50
them, and so I'm obviously cherry-picking my data. But economists like demographics.
1:46:56
Um, so the boomers hit the workplace. So it was almost guaranteed. I think Reagan was not important. I think I I think he
1:47:01
did some very important things, but I think whoever got to be president was going to be at the beginning of a boom.
1:47:08
Um, it turns out that um, China was coming out of the dark ages.
1:47:14
They started selling labor at slave wages. They were so desperate for
1:47:19
capital when they sent their leader. don't make me pronounce his name to the
1:47:25
United Nations when he first started opening up um was it Dja Ping?
1:47:30
Yes. And um they had to scrge to get the money to send them. I mean they really
1:47:36
didn't have any foreign capital. And so I remember when China said we're going
1:47:42
to let our workers keep some of their profits and it's like whoa. Um Russia
1:47:48
was had Soviet Union hadn't collapsed but they were in trouble. So, they were obviously cranking a resource base as
1:47:54
hard as they could and we had our guys in there helping them and stuff like that. Um, and interest rates were at
1:48:00
all-time highs. And if you read a 1999 article by
1:48:05
Buffett, who I think is um a hoser, I think he's much more of a stock jobber,
1:48:10
much more of a conniver than he is. He loves to be the the mafia walking around in a bathrobe saying I'm harmless. He is
1:48:18
not harmless when when when when we're in a bottom. He breaks all sorts of laws. They do all sorts of insider crap
1:48:24
to bail the system out. But he pretends to just like Dairy Queen and Coca-Cola, whatever. He wrote an article in 99 that
1:48:31
said, "You want to understand secular big long bull versus bare markets. It's all interest rates." He said, "It's not
1:48:37
GDP." Said from 67 to 81, everything sucked. It treaded water uh not
1:48:43
accounting for inflation and the markets dropped 75% accounting for inflation. So it was a horrible period. He said the
1:48:49
GDP grew faster during that period than from 81 to 99.
1:48:56
But interest rates from 67 to 81 went up monotonically. From 81 to 99 they went
1:49:03
down. So we started in ' 81 with interest rates in the high teens and
1:49:08
over the next 40 years they dropped to zero. That is absolutely the story. So when
1:49:15
interest rates are dropping, risk assets go up. Yep. Because they're competing against and as
1:49:20
they get cheaper. So bottom line is that um we just enjoyed 40-year recency bias.
1:49:27
C can you just explain that principle right there? You said as interest rates drop, risk assets go up.
1:49:32
Or are you going to buy shares of a stock that by the way treated you like crap over the previous 14 years or a
1:49:38
bond that pays you 17%. Right. Right. So the bonds become less the
1:49:44
fixed income becomes less and less attractive steadily for 40 years. Now take the case Schiller PE which is which
1:49:50
is just one of the metrics but I happen to like it. It's a kind of an averaged earnings price earnings ratio. It also
1:49:57
doesn't allow you to cheat because it doesn't use the immediate and forward pees are stupid but K shiller averages
1:50:04
so so I like it. If you take the K Schiller from n from 1880 to 1990,
1:50:11
it just channels it. It just it's it's a valuation metric and it just goes up and down and up and down and that's what it
1:50:17
should do. It it responds to things, but it stays in a channel. It's flat. Valuation metrics shouldn't trend.
1:50:25
They should trend for a while, but then they should regress to the mean. Unless you can someone can give me an argument why they should trend, and I don't think
1:50:31
there is one, and I've tried to find one. And then in 1990 they just kind of
1:50:36
started to take off and the K Schiller so the Khiller PE the K Schiller PE
1:50:42
averaged around 12 13% for 110 years
1:50:48
and around 1990 oddly 1994 in every metric is when things left. I think it
1:50:53
was because of a bond problem or something. I haven't been able to quite figure out why but the valuations went up. Now, here's
1:51:00
the problem with valuations going up and and now they're astronomical. So, the KLP averaged 13, which meant it was
1:51:06
priced to return about 8% a year, right? If you think of it as a gas station and
1:51:14
you're paying, you know, 13 to1 earnings, you're getting about 8%. And and and it keeps pumping gas every year,
1:51:20
you get about 13%. Um, it is now 38.
1:51:29
It's way above where it should be. It's a factor of three 200%.
1:51:36
Now, if you assume it's never going to regress to the mean, now you're accepting, crudely speaking,
1:51:42
a 2 and a half% return, not an eight. Now, if you're okay with 2 and 1 half%,
1:51:48
that's fine. But by the way, most pensioners, most boomers are not planning on 2 and a half%. They're not
1:51:53
right now. If it regresses to the mean, it's a 70% correction. Assuming if it's
1:51:59
fast, assuming nothing else changes, no damage to the
1:52:04
economy, you know, all the bad things that happen when you lose 70% off the equity market, which is a
1:52:12
questionable assumption. Another way to think about it which I think is much clearer
1:52:19
is if you say look we'll just grow our way. I think I go up or down or up and down. You don't worry about the path.
1:52:25
You say if we grow 2 and a half% a year which I just questioned as being valid but let's assume it's valid. If we grow
1:52:32
2 and a half% a year to get back to historical average of 13 will take 45
1:52:39
years. Now here's the thing. I made no assumptions about good news bad news. I assume it's going to be like the 20th
1:52:45
century 2 and a half% a year. It'll be 45 years
1:52:50
from now. I don't care what path you follow. If we are at the average case shield or PE and the economy grew 2 and
1:52:56
a half% a year, the equity markets will have returned capital gains zero.
1:53:05
And it doesn't matter if we crash and spike. It doesn't matter, you know, if we get to, you know, a Dow 40,000,
1:53:12
50,000, 60,000, 45 years from now, if we're at the mean,
1:53:18
we will have earned nothing. Now, you say, well, that would never happen. You go, well, if you own the '06,
1:53:24
the 1906 high, you were even after something like 40
1:53:31
years. I don't ask from if you were even after 40 years. If you buy if
1:53:37
you own the top. Yeah. People always say, "Well, how long did it take to get back to the top?" That's
1:53:43
a favorite question. You go, "Oh, you know, it took 22 years. Oh, it took 15 years. Oh, it took I like to ask a
1:53:48
question." No, no, no. Not how long it took to get from the top back to even.
1:53:54
How long did it take to go from that top to the last time
1:53:59
that that price was attained adjusted for inflation?
1:54:06
And those can go anywhere from 40 to 75 years. O All you have to do is look at inflationadjusted S&P and draw a line
1:54:13
from a top across the S S&P and you will find that most of them break even in the
1:54:19
mid 80s no matter what year they started. So you're just answering the question,
1:54:25
what the hell is going on with land prices and asset prices? Oh, everything's
1:54:30
mispriced. But is it mispriced? I mean, if I've got excess money,
1:54:37
you know, and I need to store it somewhere and I'm listening to you, I'm like, uh, I think I'm going to buy
1:54:42
something a little less volatile, a little more real, like real estate.
1:54:48
Exactly. Okay. The first time home, and I I know this
1:54:54
drives you bananas, the first time home buyers not too many decades ago were on average about 30 years old.
1:55:00
Yep. I just read what's the fact I don't know. 56 now first-time home buyers 56.
1:55:08
That's been a massive positive. Do you want to buy Do you want to buy
1:55:13
that into that market that somehow seems like it has to regress
1:55:19
because you can't have people going 56 years without owning a house, right? You
1:55:25
said you personally, I think it was in Turning Point USA, you went absolutely non-stop
1:55:31
about how you can worry about Ukraine, but we've got guys, we've got young
1:55:36
adults who can't raise families and houses. Yeah. And and it it creates a very scary
1:55:42
political environment where people don't own anything and therefore have nothing to lose and no future.
1:55:48
Right. Well, here's an interesting ADHD moment.
1:55:53
um monogamy versus polygamy. And this will sound random, but it'll get you to the same.
1:55:58
No, it's a core it's a core question actually. These are the building blocks of the west. So, turns out polygamy, monogamy is viewed
1:56:05
as favoring women. Mhm. That turns out to be backwards.
1:56:12
And it's a simple math. Imagine there's a hundred people ranked one to 100. Number 100's Mr. Big Cheese. And on the
1:56:19
women's side, hottest chick on the planet. Right. Right? Monogamy says number one would marry number one,
1:56:25
number two would marry number two in the perfect system. So think of it as just a very simple model. And that what you
1:56:32
can't do is if you're at the bottom of the chain, marry up, right?
1:56:37
If you do, then someone else gets pushed down. Of course. Right. So it would be of the interest of
1:56:43
the girl working 7-Eleven to be Jeff Bezos's second wife. Yeah, I
1:56:51
think that happened. And so, so, so in fact, you can upgrade your game and and you know, Elon, right? I
1:56:59
mean, the guy's a reproduction machine, right? The women are signing off on it because it's better to be with a guy
1:57:06
worth that kind of money than broke, right? And and so it turns out that you
1:57:12
say, "Well, then why did cultural evolution lead to monogamy?"
1:57:17
And the answer is is because it minimizes violence,
1:57:23
right? It's for the men, of course, so they don't fight.
1:57:29
Well, yeah, because in employment system, all the the high status males scoop up all the women. Well, now in a situation where men can't
1:57:35
provide the home for their families and stuff like that, so we're going to fight.
1:57:40
I've noticed. I've noticed that, too. And so, now here's the deal. Let's say we're I'm
1:57:46
right. were to market top. And if if I'm not, I think we're close. One of the
1:57:51
things that my peers who were paranoid as hell about this, some very smart guys, they tend not to put numbers on
1:57:58
it. I'm one of the few who puts numbers on it. There's there's a couple others who do, but they just say, "Oh, the
1:58:03
valuations are ridiculous." But no one wants to be on record
1:58:10
that we're going to say it's catastrophically overpriced. Whatever correction you get, you say, "See, I
1:58:15
told you I'm saying 200% over price." Now, how do you get out of overvaluation? You can't inflate your
1:58:22
way out. No, because the numerator, the price, and the denominator, the thing is supposed
1:58:28
to track both are influenced by inflation. So, as your price goes up because of
1:58:35
inflation, your revenues go up because of inflation. You're still 200% over historical average valuation.
1:58:42
And so you can't inflate away an overvaluation. So what I mean is this just a gravity
1:58:50
scenario where ultimately it has to revert to its actual value. Best model I have and they never work because it's always one of these
1:58:56
something will be creatively different. But the best model is in Nikk Japan hit a high in ' 89.
1:59:04
It briefly got back to that 35 years later. It's actually below that I think if I remember correctly. inflation
1:59:11
adjusts for that guaranteed. It's below it. Yes, that's right. I asked someone during a podcast, if you
1:59:16
can do this spreadsheet for me, I'd love to get it. Someone did it. I said, "What if you started buying the Nikkay at the
1:59:22
top?" Not own the knee. If you own the Nikk at the top, you're dead meat. You died broke.
1:59:28
But what if you what if you started buying 22-year-old graduate of Tokyo University, you started putting yen into
1:59:35
the NK in 1989. How long if you averaged in did it take you to break even? It's around two
1:59:42
decades starting with zero in the NK. So I was
1:59:48
on a podcast with George Noah Twitter space actually. He was Peter Lynch's right-hand man. And he said, "Well, you
1:59:54
could." I said, "I think the markets will be uninvestable." He said, "Oh, you could do this and this." I said, "The
1:59:59
NK." And he said, "Oh, you could short." I said, "No, you couldn't. You can't short a market that takes 20 years to
2:00:05
find a buy. You can short a market like an 07 to09. Right. Right. A volatile market. You
2:00:11
can't a market in inexorable decline can't be short. So if we're in a top, aren't tops
2:00:17
supposed to be euphoric? Remember the dot? Oh yes. The world was changing the nifty50, you
2:00:24
know, um web van and etos.com, you know, sustainable prosperity. We are
2:00:32
supposed to be true believers that the world is wonderful. Do you sense much of the population thinks the world's
2:00:38
wonderful? I don't I don't sense that. And all around us are signs of what's it going to look like when 70%
2:00:44
gets clipped off this market? So, I'm immediately going into prepper
2:00:49
survival mode. Um, what where are the enduring safe stores of value?
2:00:55
I I don't you can't answer that. I I bought gold at around
2:01:00
270 an ounce. 270. 270. Hope you bought a lot of it.
2:01:06
I did. But it's worth a lot more now. Do you think? Yeah. Um
2:01:11
what's spot price today, do you know? Uh ballpark 3,300. Yeah. I bought silver. I bought gold below
2:01:18
270. I'll tell you why. Because my first purchases were actually in a closed mutual fund that was trading 27% below
2:01:25
net asset valuation because no one People say, "Oh, it was easy to buy back then. It was cheap." I said, "It was cheap because five of us wanted it."
2:01:31
Right. Well, of course. Right. And by the way, the top, some
2:01:36
Tuesday afternoon at 2:03 p.m., we will hit a top that will be decades later to
2:01:42
be returned to potentially. The top is the point of maximum optimism, which
2:01:48
paradoxically is the moment in time where your justification for optimism is
2:01:53
zero. The bottom is the same thing in reverse, of course.
2:01:58
So, so we're not happy. Now, so you're saying the herd's not always right. Is that what you're saying? I'm told.
2:02:04
I'm told. So, wait. So, let's hold on. Let's just go back to gold for a second. So, you buy I bought gold net at around 210.
2:02:12
Come on. Well, I bought it 28% below NAV when it was physical delivery.
2:02:17
No, that was not physical. But then I started buying. Here's what I did. I bought gold from the local coin dealer.
2:02:23
Yeah. And I'd say, "When you get ounces, I'll pay cash." And he sold it to me at Spot.
2:02:30
and and he'd call and say, "I got three ounces in." I'd go to the bank. I'd get out $900, right? And I'd buy the gold
2:02:37
from him cash. I'd buy silver from him cash. I could buy silver eagles at spot.
2:02:44
You go on eBay, holy [ __ ] those things are like 10 bucks above spot. Um and and
2:02:49
it was for for ballpark $4 an ounce. And and then I remember it was at 457
2:02:58
and I was buying from him and he said, "Don't you think there's a top?" He knew I was going to buy it. He said, "Don't
2:03:03
you think this is a top?" $457 an ounce for gold. There's like 03 or something. I don't
2:03:09
know. And and I said, "How many people are buying gold from you?" He said, "Oh, about four." And I said, "And the other
2:03:14
three are my friends, aren't they?" He said, "Yeah." And I said, "Does that sound like a mania to you?" And uh and
2:03:23
so um here's the thing. I've been on I I'm a
2:03:28
big fan of energy, but I think when the selling starts, everything sells. You'll be selling your children, you'll
2:03:33
be sell, right? Everything sells. So I think the idea of trying to get into any risk assets so dangerous. I'll take 4%
2:03:39
on a treasury, two-year Treasury. Some people think, you know, I'll lock it up for two years. Oh, that'll save
2:03:45
me. I won't dip by after 6 months. So, at what price would you buy gold again?
2:03:52
Well, I've got so much I don't need anymore. If I didn't own any, I'd buy it now, but the Bitcoin guys would say,
2:03:57
"Buy Bitcoin at 117,000." I turned it down at 10. Um, I wish I'd bought it. I
2:04:02
would have sold it at 50 and spent the proceeds on therapy. Um, why on therapy?
2:04:08
Because I would have sold it at 50, right? Good point. Um, and I know I would have.
2:04:14
I know I would have. You don't You don't believe in crypto? Uh, I don't think so. I I the crypto committee I am their number one target.
2:04:20
They say you are a hodler and I I won't buy it. And the reason is because I believe that um several
2:04:28
layers. One is that um I believe that the the authorities are not going to let crypto take over.
2:04:34
Of course not. And and by the way, that means that they're going to lose total control over society. That's right. I don't think so.
2:04:40
You think the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds are going to hand it over to Max Kaiser and Michael Sailor? I don't think so.
2:04:46
You don't you don't think Here's what I think it actually is. You know, the first paper on crypto was written by three NSA guys. Yeah.
2:04:52
That means I think if I were smart and I were going to bring in central bank
2:04:57
digital currency, which is an authoritarian nightmare, um, I would do it the way they did. I'd
2:05:05
release the crypto. I'd have guys pumping it. I'd have guys supporting it. I'd let them debug the networks and the
2:05:12
kinks and the and acclimate people to it. And then I'd say, "Okay, it was fun.
2:05:17
We'll take it from here." Uh, and in the process, of course, you
2:05:23
acclimate people to this new digital world, new kind of commerce. Yeah. Exactly. No, that's And I get rid of the ATMs,
2:05:29
and I would make airport convenience stores credit card only, and I would do all that stuff to to change people's
2:05:35
cash. Cash is liberty, of course. Oh, I couldn't agree more. So, um,
2:05:40
you just have too much gold. You just don't want any more gold. I I just No, it's I I'm What about real estate right now?
2:05:47
Uh I'm long I own a nice house. I'm long real estate by owning that house. I wouldn't buy real estate as a
2:05:53
speculation. If I if you put a gun to my head, I'd say maybe farmland, but that's
2:05:59
been getting scooped up. That's a pretty trit narrative now big time. Well, I follow that because I'm interested and
2:06:06
um I mean it's turning for just crazy numbers in Anchor and that Well, that's the problem.
2:06:11
That's what I'm saying. So, so here's what I got. Here's what I watched for years and then jumped in. And it's a problem. The modern market. I
2:06:18
bought gold steadily from 99 through about 03. And then I bought some more when it was around 1,200 in the teens. I
2:06:26
said, "Okay, it's kind of flattened out. I'm going to get some more." So, around bought it around $1,200 in maybe 2016 or
2:06:33
something. And um but the modern markets don't wait. If you get a good idea in social media and
2:06:41
stuff, it will close up that gap so fast you won't know it hit you. So, I'm
2:06:46
bullish on energy long-term energy equities and stuff, but I think they're going to sell before they become a good
2:06:52
buy. And so, I just can't commit a lot of money to the energy, even though I think it I I have some mutual funds on
2:06:58
uranium based investments, which I think we got to go to. And now it looks like we are. I actually think AI is not
2:07:05
demanding nuclear energy. I think AI is being used as a Trojan horse to bring in nuclear
2:07:11
energy, which I support. I think they're using the buzz of AI to say, "No, let's get the nukes going."
2:07:19
People say, "Yeah, nukes. We need it for the AI." Um, we've needed nukes. It was the obvious next thing to go to. Um,
2:07:27
platinum for years. I watched platinum. owned so little platinum that if it went to zero,
2:07:34
I wouldn't even notice. I mean, trivial trivial amount. And and I've been
2:07:39
watching it's been flat. I mean, flat as in like a flatline, not moving away from
2:07:44
$900 an ounce by a few dollars flat for 10 years after dropping.
2:07:50
And I go, what's the platinum story? Well, the platinum story is um I don't trade. I don't trade at all. If I buy
2:07:57
it, I'm I'm buying it saying, "Look, I'm hanging on to it. If it goes down, I'm I don't trade." The platinum story is I
2:08:04
don't believe in the EV. I don't think it's a good technology. I think it'll be here, but I don't think it's going to
2:08:10
take over the world. I think the hybrids are going to take over the world. Well, they make sense. They make inherent sense.
2:08:15
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They're more efficient. They use more platinum than EV than internal combustion engines.
2:08:21
Yeah. because because their catalytic converters burn colder, so they need more platinum.
2:08:27
Now, here's where it gets real interesting. The platinum miners are in Russia and South Africa.
2:08:35
Russia will therefore have control. South Africa could become a failed state so
2:08:40
fast you don't know what it right. more to the point. Um, and again trying to
2:08:46
get real facts on this stuff, but but the above ground platinum supply, the
2:08:52
available platinum supply is something like $3 billion, which is a something a medium-sized
2:08:58
hedge fund could buy at current prices. It's been in deficit production for at
2:09:04
least four years. What does deficit production mean? Means that we're consuming more per year than the miners are producing.
2:09:10
Okay? based on the rate of deficit production that the above ground supply
2:09:16
will be gone within about a year. So there's no more platinum.
2:09:21
Arguably we could go to potentially platium but you know whatever. Platinum has not gone through a meme phase. So my
2:09:27
a little bit of trader me says that meme phase could get spectacular. Platinum could go to 20,000
2:09:33
because it has industrial uses, right? You know it seems kind of natural, right? So So I decided I was so I reached out
2:09:40
to some technical analysts who draw the squiggles on the on the curves. And I make I I'm sarcastically occasionally
2:09:46
commenting about technical analysis, but I I can't do it or don't believe in or whatever. But I asked a few I said,
2:09:51
"Look at this plot. Where would you start getting excited?" Because it's been flat for 10 years. I
2:09:57
don't need to put money in and have it sit there for 10 years more. And a few gave me opinions about what price. I
2:10:03
kind of formulated an opinion where I had to start and then hit it. Now,
2:10:09
instead of buying it, you know, slowly, I I said in the modern era, you got to move quick. So, I started hitting the
2:10:16
buy button, and I'm still not I face a boomer
2:10:21
dilemma. The boomer dilemma is the good news is my net worth is good enough. If
2:10:27
I don't screw up, I'm fine. I mean, I could retire today, not earn another penny, fine. I want to leave money to my
2:10:33
kids. I will be able to. The paradox is that to commit to an
2:10:41
asset requires committing a percentage that's not stupid. If you commit 0.01%
2:10:47
of your assets to it, it's not going to make a difference no matter what happens. So if you say, well 5%.
2:10:55
When I look at the quantity of money I have to spend to commit 5%. It seems huge,
2:11:03
but it's only 5%. And so as a consequence, I go, "Look, if
2:11:08
it went if it went to zero tomorrow, I'd have a bad day. I'd lose 5% of my
2:11:14
assets, but it would be too much money." So, so I'm fighting this bias about how many
2:11:22
dollars it takes to get to a I get it. So, let me ask you just a a wrap-up
2:11:27
question, which is given your description of where we are, and you haven't even mentioned uh what could be
2:11:33
a debt crisis when people stop buying our debt or slow down, but there all
2:11:39
kinds of things to worry about that are seem imminent. Um, how does the average person respond?
2:11:46
They don't have any money anyways. Yeah, fair. I mean, the the average person has no money.
2:11:53
So, so how does the 5 percentile boomer respond? Yeah.
2:11:58
Well, years ago I did an analysis on the 5 percentile boomer. This is how bad it is. This is years ago actually. And it
2:12:04
it actually got vetted by Steven Roach, who's executive director of of of Morgan Stanley. He looked at my numbers, said
2:12:11
actually you've overestimated something. You should be more conservative. The five I invented 5 percentile guy at that
2:12:17
time. He was worth $1.1 million. He was earning $156,000 a year. You also
2:12:25
know he's not 22 years old. He's probably a boomer because it takes a while to get to 5 percentile.
2:12:32
At a reasonable rate of withdrawal from a retirement account, Mr. 5 percentile
2:12:37
guy who is has to be living the American dream could take about $48,000 out
2:12:45
annually. annually without risking going broke.
2:12:52
And you know what? They don't know how to live on 48,000. No. And they might have other assets. This is a complicated analysis, but that's a
2:12:58
scary number for a modern life. That's a Yeah. Well, the but the other thing is
2:13:03
if he knew how to live on 30 $48,000, he'd have more than 1.1 million. Good point. And so, so we've got a whole
2:13:12
generation that has got expectations that are just off thechart distorted. And it's not because of a 5-year or 10
2:13:20
year recency bias. It's a 40-year recency bias. It's 1981. Let me finish
2:13:25
that story. From 1981, the valuation, which should not trend,
2:13:31
compounded annually 4% a year.
2:13:37
What happens over the next 40 years when it compounds negative 4% a year to get
2:13:43
to cheap again? Now you say, "Well, that'll never happen." I go, "Of course it'll happen.
2:13:49
Show me an asset class that got overpriced. It didn't become cheap again." Well, if you believe in markets, that's
2:13:54
just by definition going to happen. Right. And if there's a way to fake it so it doesn't happen, then it means you're just diluting as to what actually
2:14:00
happened. You're not getting a reality. Right. Right. And so the bottom line is is that the boomer demographic almost by
2:14:07
definition was going to generate a bubble, a big mother bubble because of the demographics. Now I was telling you
2:14:13
about how I was reading my old writeups from like 13, 14, 15.
2:14:20
I make a compelling case that that the markets were crazy. How do I do it? I
2:14:25
use numbers. I use stats and I use quotes from the most famous money guys in the world. you know, Paul Tudtor
2:14:31
Jones, um, uh, Stan Ducken Miller, you name it. These are not lightweights saying these markets are insanely
2:14:38
overvalued in 2015. What has happened since then? Straight up.
2:14:44
Oh, for sure. Example, Apple t-fold gain
2:14:53
a growth in revenues of 50%.
2:14:58
95 per 95% correction brings that back down.
2:15:05
Microsoft 150% gain in revenues. T-fold gain
2:15:11
doesn't make mathematical sense. Let's go to Nvidia. There's the winner. $4 trillion
2:15:16
of market cap being run by a guy who has a very sketchy past.
2:15:23
25fold gain in revenues. You go. Now we're talking 250fold gain in market cap.
2:15:31
Yeah. So that's the problem right there. 90% correction takes you back to 2015. Do you remember 2015 being depressed? I
2:15:38
don't. Stan Miller didn't think so. Howard Marx didn't think so. All these guys who are
2:15:44
considered legends thought the markets were insanely overpriced in 15.
2:15:51
And it's been nothing but up. And that will end. I don't know when.
2:15:58
And you think that all asset classes are tied to that? I can't say all because that means 100%.
2:16:05
But I I if I found something that I thought was dirt cheap. Um
2:16:11
I'm glad I own the gold from as cheap as I did because because when it goes down, I go
2:16:18
I'm still up what 15fold or something, right? Um so it makes it easier. um buying gold
2:16:24
now from scratch would be harder. It would be that you know the number of dollars to get the percent position that
2:16:31
sort of thing. Um I and I think the the debt problem is
2:16:36
global. If you actually look at the metrics for the growth in the global debt relative to global GDP,
2:16:42
the entire world has become
2:16:47
priced much more than 10 years ago relative to what the world produces. So,
2:16:52
what's a global debt crisis? That's the question. You said, "Well, there's you got lenders and borrowers. It's a zero sum game." No, it's not.
2:16:58
I know. A global debt crisis is when the entire world thinks they're going to get [ __ ]
2:17:03
that the world can't produce. And the way you think of how to create one artificial Gadden experiment, let's
2:17:10
say the leaders of the world got together and said, "Look, let's just solve this problem. Let's guarantee healthcare to all our citizens. Let's
2:17:16
guarantee their pension. All our citizens." Problem solved. They go, "Well, but you didn't in any way, shape, or form
2:17:23
increase the ability to produce wealth." Right? So, you now have obligations for which
2:17:28
you haven't a clue. How you going to pay for them? Who's going to do it? We going to have the
2:17:35
Chinese delivering Chinese food to our doors still? I don't think so. We're going to be delivering food to the
2:17:40
Chinese. So, um, so everything will regress.
2:17:45
40-year recency bias says it won't. It will.
2:17:50
On that dark note, um I'm just picturing myself showing up at a doorstep in Beijing with some Kungpow chicken,
2:17:57
hoping for a tip. I can see you now. You you turn the the scanner around and shove the 25% tip in
2:18:05
the guy's face. Professor, thank you. I hope this doesn't get you fired and I hope you'll
2:18:10
come back. I Anytime you call, I'm in the car. Thank you. [Music]
2:18:18
So, it turns out that YouTube is suppressing this show. On one level, that's not surprising. That's what they
2:18:24
do. But on another level, it's shocking. With everything that's going on in the world right now, all the change taking
2:18:29
place in our economy and our politics, with the wars we're on the cusp of fighting right now, Google has decided
2:18:35
you should have less information rather than more. And that is totally wrong.
2:18:40
It's immoral. What can you do about it? Well, we could whine about it. That's a waste of time. We're not in charge of
2:18:47
Google. Or we could find a way around it. A way that you could actually get information that is true, not
2:18:52
intentionally deceptive. The way to do that on YouTube, we think, is to subscribe to our channel. Subscribe. Hit
2:18:58
the little bell icon to be notified when we upload and share this video. That way, you'll have a much higher chance of
2:19:05
hearing actual news and information. So, we hope that you'll do

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